Survey points out that president would win all potential opponents in an eventual second round by the Planalto Palace
O Leads voting intentions today to shows genius/Quaest research released this Thursday (18). The Institute tested eight first -round scenarios, with the petista leading in all. In addition, the survey showed that Lula would beat all his potential opponents in a possible second round by the Planalto Palace. In general, the research revealed a scenario of stability in relation to the survey published last month. Since then, the president has followed the lead in all tested scenarios, with subtle variations within the margin of error.
The survey listened to 2,004 voters in 120 Brazilian cities from September 12 to 14. The collection was performed at home with structured questionnaires. The margin of error is two percentage points, with 95% confidence. In the eventual second round against the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), Lula recorded 43% of voting intentions. Already the governor of São Paulo added 35%. The numbers are equal to those of the survey released in August.
In a possible second round, the former governor of Ceará Ciro Gomes (PDT) recorded 33%, compared to 40% of the petista-a difference of seven percentage points. There is no historical series of the confrontation between Lula and the pedestrian. The survey also tested second round scenarios between Lula and members of the Bolsonaro family. According to the survey, Lula would beat former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) with 47% of the votes, against 34% of the opponent. However, the scenario is unlikely, since Bolsonaro is ineligible and was sentenced to more than 27 years in prison.
Former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) recorded 32% of voting intentions, compared to 47% of Lula in the eventual second round. Eduardo Bolsonaro, son of the former president, marked 29%, compared to 47% of the petista. According to the survey, Lula would win in the eventual second round against all right -wing governors. The governor of Paraná, Ratinho Júnior (PSD), obtained 32%, against 44% of the president. The governor of Minas, Romeu Zema (Novo), scored 32%, compared to 45% of Lula. The governor of Goiás, Ronaldo Caiado (Union), reached 31%, against 46% of the petista. The governor of Rio Grande do Sul, Eduardo Leite (PSD), scored 26%, while Lula reached 45%
Lula leads in 1st round scenarios
The survey simulated eight different arrangements of candidates. In the first scenario, Lula appears with 32% of voting intentions, followed by with 24%, and Ciro, with 11%. In other combinations, the petista oscillates between 32% and 43%, always ahead of opponents. When Michelle replaces former President Bolsonaro, Lula scores 33%, against 18% of the former first lady. With Tarcisio, the petista has 35% to 17%. Already in the scenarios in which he faces Eduardo, Lula ranges from 32% to 43%, while the deputy reaches between 14% and 21%.
Among the right -wing candidates, in addition to Bolsonaro and his family, appeared Junior, Zema and Caiado, who ranged from 4% to 13% according to the composition. The research also evaluated the intention to spontaneous voting, in which the voter does not receive the list of names. In this case, Lula rose from 16% in August to 18% in September, while Bolsonaro fell from 9% to 6%. The governor of São Paulo was cited by 2%. The indecisive rate increased from 66% to 68%.
*With information from Estadão Content
