Donald Trump wants to present the agreement with Iran as a quick way out of the energy crisis. The president announced that Hormuz will open when the pact is signed, scheduled for Friday, and celebrated the turn with a campaign phrase: “Ships of the world, start your engines. Let the oil flow!”. The reality points to something else: a slow, technical and risk-filled process.
The data supports that caution. Mine clearance can take weeks and full relief on exports could take up to two months. Besides, recovering substantial oil and gas flows will require reestablishing shipping confidencedeparture of trapped ships and reactivation of stopped infrastructure.
At first, the pact relieved the markets: Brent fell nearly 5%, below $83 per barrelits lowest level since the beginning of March. European wholesale gas fell around 6% and stock markets rose. But the price moves faster than the oil tankers themselves.
An uncertain calendar
Trump said he authorized the free opening of the strait and the immediate withdrawal of the US naval blockade on Iranian ports. Then he clarified that Hormuz would open after the signing and “for demining purposes”a necessary first step, but not the only one to take.
The White House presents the pact as a turning point, but details remain unclear. The Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegsethsowed confusion by saying on CBS that the road would be reopened “immediately” after the signing of the memorandum between Washington and Tehran and then adding: “If it takes 30 days to fully mature, or two weeks, it will start immediately”.
The confusion also affects the US naval blockade on Iranian ports. Trump claimed that he had authorized his immediate withdrawal, while Hegseth suggested that unlocking and reopening would advance in phases. Iran has not confirmed all the terms.
60 days to negotiate
Washington and Tehran have agreed to a truce 60 days to negotiate a broader agreement on the Iranian nuclear program and sanctions. This margin may be sufficient for ships close to the strait, but for tankers located further away the calculation will be more riskyespecially if they fear a temporary reopening.
Iran has not confirmed all the terms. According to the Iranian Fars news agency, related to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the draft recognizes Iranian-Omani authority over navigation services and Tehran would accept free passage only for 60 days, before studying formulas to obtain income.
Added to the political uncertainty is the industrial uncertainty. Reactivating wells, refineries and terminals is not automatic. Gulf countries cut production by up to 15 million barrels per day this springabout 15% of global supply, according to S&P Global Energy. Getting that machinery back up and running requires security, personnel, contracts and time.
Europe gains margin
Europe received the news with relief. The fall in wholesale gas and crude oil reduces pressure on inflation, industrial costs and transportation. A stable reopening of Hormuz would help contain fuel, electricity and raw materials linked to oil, although the continent is not protected by a firm.
The impact has been felt in kerosene, diesel and petrochemical derivatives. If shipping companies maintain high risk premiums or shipments take time to normalize, European consumers could see relief sooner in markets than at gas stations. France and the United Kingdom have offered to lead a mission with Dutch and Italian support.
File – A US Navy destroyer deployed in Washington’s Strait of Hormuz blockade mission / CENTCOM ON X – File
Asia will take longer to recover
Asia will continue to be the most exposed region. More than four-fifths of the oil and liquefied natural gas transiting Hormuz typically heads to Asian markets. Japan, South Korea, China, India and Southeast Asia have suffered for months from physical shortages, inflation and industrial bottlenecks.
Still, even in normal times, Getting oil and gas from Persian Gulf wells to buyers in China or Japan can take weeks or months. Then it remains to refine the crude oil and distribute fuel for cars, trucks and planes. That is why a quick return to pre-war levels is not expected.
Relief, but not ‘normality’
If the pact holds and is expanded, oil will probably remain below wartime highs, but according to market analysts Gasoline, diesel and other fuels unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels sooneven in countries without direct shortages.
The crisis has also destroyed demand. S&P Global Energy estimates that global consumption of oil and related fuels will fall almost 5% in the second quarter, the largest decline outside of the pandemic. The International Energy Agency forecasts a more moderate decline, but also sees less activity, imports and industrial production.
Trump’s political message thus expresses a wish more than a reality. Hormuz may reopen on paper on Fridaybut security, ships, refineries and reserves They will take a lot longer to align. Relief has begun in the markets, but normality has not yet occurred.
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