(Bloomberg) — U.S. President Donald Trump continues to reiterate that the Strait of Hormuz — through which one-fifth of the world’s supply of oil and liquefied natural gas normally flows — will reopen by Friday.
However, behind the scenes at the G7 summit, where Iran will dominate Monday’s dinner talks, it is clear that its European allies do not share the same optimism. They disagree that trade can resume by the end of the week, as promised by Trump, and have practical questions about what exactly was agreed before they can commit to mine clearance missions and patrols.
According to a G7 official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal dynamics, there are serious difficulties in finding a common position among the group on how to handle the situation in Iran. Few expect a joint statement, something that has proven difficult to achieve during the Trump era.
Even Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who for the most part skillfully avoided provoking Trump, said her country’s contribution is conditional on the cessation of hostilities in Lebanon, where Israeli military forces have carried out attacks in recent days. She’s not alone in questioning Trump’s accelerated schedule.
It doesn’t help that even within Trump’s own administration, prominent figures have not gone so far as to promise that navigation of the vital waterway could return to normal in the blink of an eye.
A senior U.S. official said traffic in the shipping lane will increase gradually over time, and it could take up to two weeks for shipping to increase significantly — and even longer to return to levels seen before the U.S. attacked Iran along with Israel in February. There are mines in the strait that still need to be cleared, and shipowners have different risk tolerances about sailing through Hormuz, the official said.
The source said the memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran will make explicit that the strait will be open duty-free for 60 days, and the US expects that provision to be included in a final agreement. The fact is that free navigation, previously seen as guaranteed, is now the subject of negotiations that have not even begun.
Although both the US and Iran have said they have reached an interim agreement to reopen the strait, without an official document open to the public, they have offered different descriptions of the content of the text.
Authorities are expected to sign the agreement in Switzerland this Friday. US government officials have offered different timetables for releasing the full text, with Trump saying it will happen by the end of the week at the latest and another senior US official saying it will be within the next two days. Vice President JD Vance will likely represent the administration at the signing.
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G7 leaders will next decide on a framework for removing mines from the waterway, including consent from Iran and other parties involved, according to information previously reported by Bloomberg. European leaders plan to seek Trump’s approval for the mission during the G7.
The problem they face is that Trump minimized their role and the difficulties they would have in trying to help.
“The ships are starting to leave now, on Friday it will be completely open,” Trump said this Monday at the leaders’ summit in Evian. “They’re doing a little search for a couple of mines that they’ve already found, but it’s — essentially the ships are starting to leave now.”
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Furthermore, deployments will not begin until there is a final agreement between the US and Iran that restores full and unimpeded commercial navigation rights as well as a secure environment for military assets in the strait, Bloomberg previously reported.
This could be a matter of weeks rather than days, German officials warn, because any direct involvement would require an international mandate. And removing mines can prove complex and time-consuming.
It is not clear how many mines there are in the strait or whether any have been laid. Iran, at various times, has said it has mined the narrow canal. In mid-March, the UK said it appeared clear that Iran had done this, while the US said this was not the case.
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Ensuring the strait is clear will be a painstaking exercise, said Caitlin Talmadge of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). The work will move faster if Iran provides the information it has on the location of the mines, she said.
European countries have a substantial amount of mine clearance capacity, he added. But these vessels will be in a bad position if hostilities are resumed.
“Mine clearance operations must be conducted in a safe environment,” she said. “Relevant vessels and operators could be vulnerable if Iranian attacks resume, particularly ships dedicated to mine countermeasures, which generally lack self-defense capabilities.”
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Despite their reservations, the Europeans are moving forward with planning.
French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer have led an effort by US allies to come up with a plan to help reopen the strait in the event of a final peace deal. More than 15 countries have committed equipment and personnel to the mission.
As host — and this being his last G7 as leader — Macron is committed.
“It is a very important issue for peace, for the whole world, and this will reopen Hormuz,” Macron said. “It will guarantee peace in Lebanon. And so we are ready to shoulder our fair share of the burden and be part of the international community’s commitment.”
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