A question haunts the Forbidden City: who will succeed Xi Jinping?

Xi Jinping seems to believe that only his continued leadership of China’s destinies can ensure China’s rise. But as you get older, choosing a successor will become more risky and difficult.

While China’s top leaders met behind closed doors in Beijing last week to chart the nation’s strategic course, a critical, unspoken question hovered over proceedings: who will suceder a Xi Jinping — and when?

After 13 years in power, the president of China has consolidated authority to previously unseen levels from Mao Tse-tung. However, his reluctance to designate a successor creates a growing uncertainty about the country’s political future, notes the

At 72, Xi faces the classic autocrat’s dilemma. Naming a successor risks create a rival power center which could undermine its current dominance, while failing to establish clear succession plans threatens its legacy and could destabilize the Chinese political elite.

This delicate balance becomes increasingly precarious as Xi ages and the group of suitable heirs narrows.

Xi’s approach to succession reflects his deep distrust in relation to political rivals and his conviction that only the continuity of his leadership can ensure China’s rise as a global superpower.

Xi systematically eliminated term limits and surrounded himself with loyal allies, effectively removing transition mechanisms established by previous leaders.

This consolidation of powerwhile strengthening its immediate position, complicates long-term planning for China’s leadership transition.

O actual Politburo Standing Committeethe seven-member body at the top of Chinese power, is constituted entirely by long-time allies of Xi, who are now 60 or older.

This demographic reality makes them unlikely candidates succession, as they would be too advanced in age to lead China in the coming decades.

Xi himself was 54 years old when he joined the Standing Committee in 2007, a promotion that clearly signaled his status as heir apparent.

Xi’s approach to succession is heavily influenced by historical precedents he see as examples to avoid.

The Chinese president criticized explicitly the choice of the Soviet Union of Mikhail Gorbachev as successorhaving argued that selecting a reformer directly led to the dissolution of the USSR.

This perspective shapes Xi’s insistence that any future leader must demonstrate unwavering loyalty to your policies and ideological framework.

Xi’s personal history also contextualizes his cautious approach. His father, a senior Communist Party leader, was purged by Maoand the Chinese leader witnessed firsthand how divisions in leadership during the 1989 pro-democracy protests contributed to political upheaval.

These experiences reinforced his conviction that succession planning requires extreme care to avoid destabilizing party unity.

Xi’s intolerance for disloyalty was demonstrated recently when the military announced the expulsion of nine senior officers who face accusations of corruption and abuse of power, sending a clear message about the consequences of challenging their authority.

Since Xi, who even believes that , will probably comply at least one more full termfrom 2027 onwards, his eventual successor will probably be a leader born in the 1970s, who will currently be in the regional administration or in central government agencies.

However, identify and prepare such candidates presents significant challenges. These younger managers must prove their ability, while avoiding any appearance of ambition that could threaten Xi’s current position.

The generational gap between Xi and potential successors creates additional complications. As experts note, Xi’s distrust particularly extends to managers with whom he has only indirect relations.

This skepticism toward younger generations, combined with their emphasis on testing loyalty through hardship and responsibility, narrows the field of viable candidates.

Prolonged uncertainty could lead to intensification of maneuvers behind the scenes among Xi’s inner circle, as leaders position themselves themselves and their protégés for potential advancement.

These dynamics risk becoming create political instability that Xi’s centralized approach aims to prevent.

As China continues its rise as a global power, resolving Xi Jinping’s succession dilemma will prove crucial not only to the stability of the Communist Party but for the international order itself.

Thus, one question remains: will Xi successfully navigate this challenge, and maintain the control that you consider essential for China’s continued ascendancy?