The Ibovespa closed this Wednesday (29) at the third record in a row, approaching the historic mark of 150 thousand points amid the market’s cycle of optimism due to domestic and international factors.
The rise of recent days opens a window for the projection of new records, according to analysts interviewed by CNN Moneywith expectations pointing to levels of 170 thousand points in 2026.
Despite the climate of euphoria, experts believe that the positive tide could turn, especially with constant fiscal concerns on investors’ radar.
Brazil more attractive
The imposition of tariffs by Donald Trump’s government and the uncertain conduct of American economic policy generated caution among investors, who began to look for more attractive alternatives.
With the signaling of new interest cuts in the United States — —, emerging markets, which offer higher rates, gained prominence.
Brazil, in this context, has become one of the main destinations for foreign capital. .
According to data released by B3, the flow of foreign investment was positive at R$26.9 billion in the first half of the year, considering IPOs and follow-ons, the best performance since the second half of 2023.
Raphael Figueredo, strategist at XP, states that the market is experiencing a “global rotation”, with investors reallocating capital between different regions.
“It is natural that part of that overexposure is being transferred to more attractive markets, such as emerging ones, of which Brazil is a part.”
João Daronco, analyst at Suno Research, reinforces that the movement is global.
“We have observed European markets performing well, as well as emerging markets in South America, such as Chile and Colombia. We can say that it is a global mood, not just a Brazilian one. The water is rising and everyone is rising together.”
Exchange, fiscal and psychological
Internally, the stock exchange’s performance is supported by exchange rate stability, good corporate results and the government’s signal that it intends to seek fiscal balance.
“There is also an important psychological component: when the index approaches historical highs, there is a natural entry of new investors who do not want to miss out on the movement, which creates a self-fueled appreciation cycle”, explains Enrico Gazola, economist at Nero Consultoria.
Another relevant factor is the expectation that the Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) will reduce the Selic rate from the first quarter of 2026, which favors companies in cyclical sectors and with a high level of debt.
“We can see an improvement in capital flow, which explains the renewal of the maximums”, says Figueredo.
Ibovespa at 170 thousand points in 2026
The market still expects further cuts in the American interest rate, which is seen as positive for the Brazilian stock market.
“Historically, looking at past cycles of interest cuts, Brazil and emerging markets tend to perform very well. Our stock market has already seen an increase of more than 30% in the 12 months following the Fed’s first cut. In some cycles, the Ibovespa rises more than the S&P 500 itself”, says Fernando Ferreira, from XP.
If this year the focus was on foreign investors, now the market is also starting to look at domestic flows, with the resumption of interest in variable income assets given the prospect of a fall in the Selic.
“Our forecast was already 150 thousand points this year, and we are very close to reaching that value. For next year, given this scenario, we see 170 thousand as a fair value for Ibovespa”, concludes Ferreira.
Does good humor have an expiration date?
The Ibovespa has accumulated an increase of around 24% in the year and reached a new historic level this Wednesday, reaching 148 thousand points.
In the opinion of experts, optimism should persist as long as the fundamentals remain the same: slowing global inflation, the prospect of lower interest rates abroad, the inflow of foreign capital and relative domestic political stability.
However, the market lives on expectations, and they can change quickly.
“If the Fed toughens its speech again or if the Brazilian government loses fiscal credibility, the scenario could reverse in a matter of days”, warns the economist. “For now, the winds remain favorable, but it is an optimism that needs to be taken with caution, as euphoria is usually the most vulnerable phase of any bull cycle.”
The expectation for the next few days is for a correction and profit taking after the sequence of increases. The continuity of a good mood will depend, above all, on the resolution of internal issues.
In Brazil, the key factor is fiscal credibility: any sign of responsibility in public accounts tends to sustain investor confidence. Abroad, uncertainties have been decreasing with the progress of the Trump administration’s trade negotiations.
