José Coelho / Lusa
Despite there being slight differences, the three candidates are in a technical tie. In a second round scenario, Marques Mendes defeats Gouveia e Melo. Ventura always loses against the three main opponents.
The most recent Intercampus survey for , CMTV and Jornal de Negócios reveals a significant change in voting intentions for the 2026 presidential elections.
For the first time in this barometer, Gouveia e Melo stops leading voting intentions, falling to third place with 15.4%. Ahead of him are Luís Marques Mendes, supported by the PSD, with 16.6%, and André Ventura, leader of Chega, with 15.8%. However, the difference between the three is so small that it still falls within the margin of error, with the candidates in technical draw.
António José Seguro, comes in fourth place, with 12.3%, a drop of 1.4 percentage points compared to the last Intercampus survey, carried out in August. Despite having recently secured formal support from the PS, Seguro has difficulty retaining the socialist electorate: only 33% of PS supporters support him.
Ventura is the candidate with the greatest party loyalty, winning 72% of Chega voters, while Marques Mendes retains 43% of AD voters. Gouveia e Melo, in turn, distributes support across the board, bringing together 20% of PS and AD voters, but only 6% of Chega voters.
Among the remaining candidates, João Cotrim Figueiredo, from the Liberal Initiative, remains stagnant, with 8.4%, while Catarina Martins from the Bloco de Esquerda registers a significant increasereaching 7.1%. Communist António Filipe also grows slightly, to 4.6%.
In second-round scenarios, Gouveia e Melo loses for the first time for Marques Mendes, although he surpasses António José Seguro. Marques Mendes also has a comfortable advantage against Seguro, winning by almost 10 percentage points. Ventura, on the other hand, would be defeated by any of the three main opponents in a second round.
