Los Environment Ministers of the European Union They are looking for an agreement this Tuesday reduce emissions by 90% by 2040 and an agreement on their contribution to fulfill the goals of the Paris Agreementfacing the COP30 which starts this week in Belém (Brazil).
“Delaying climate action or reducing targets below the planned path is an invitation to burn money and lose opportunities investment,” said the first vice president of the European Commission, Teresa Riberaon Monday from Brazil. A clear message to the European environment ministers who sit down to negotiate this Tuesday.
The twenty-seven need an agreement before the COP. On the one hand, the EU has to agree what its contribution will be to the emissions reduction by 2035within the framework of the Paris agreements. On the other hand, search agree on the review of the climate law that marks a intermediate point between cutting emissions by 55% by 2030 and climate neutrality in 2050. For many, the necessary coherence between the two makes it impossible to close one without the other.
Goal: 2040
The EU has been for years a reference actor in the fight against climate change. Arriving empty-handed in Belém would undermine the credibility of the blocrecognized a high diplomatic source. But since the bloc committed to achieving climate neutrality in 2019, the world, politics and community priorities have changed. Reaching an agreement will not be easy.
The ministers will start with amendments to the climate law to make the goal of reducing emissions legally binding 90% by 2040. For Spain, flexibility aside, this is the big red line because it is the minimum that scientists demand. A community source highlights that Despite the turbulence, the goal was still therebut the issue is so sensitive that it has reached the highest level.
EU leaders meeting in the European Council last October They gave specific instructions to the Danish presidency on how to formulate amendments to the climate law. The Danes have put on the table a text that, they consider, has all the ingredients to serve as a commitment. The main one is that doesn’t convince anyonewhich is usually synonymous with success in Europe.
Brakes and review clauses
Leaders demanded in October that any 2040 deal include three things. The first, the objective had to be “realistic” about the contribution of natural absorption of emissions. The second, that this reduction in emissions had to be “ambitious and profitable”and pointed to the importance of international credits. And third, they asked for a review clause that would allow the bloc adapt to possible technological advances.
For the first thing, on the table there will be an “emergency brake”. This mechanism responds to the fear that the projections on the contribution of natural sinks, forests, wetlands or grasslands, to absorb emissions are not correct, precisely because the effects of climate change.
Some countries ask that, The objective is automatically adapted. Others believe that any modification should be made after a scientific analysisthat the answer It shouldn’t necessarily be a discount of ambition, and also that it is impossible to foresee all the scenarios between now and 2040.
Regarding the international creditseverything or almost everything is to be defined. In practice, this would be pay third countries for activities that help reduce or absorb emissions, to compensate for their own. In the original Commission proposal, Only 3% of emissions can be externalized. Some countries ask expand it up to 5% or even 10%. This will be one of the points of discussion.
Regarding the third, the law would introduce a clause that opens the door to reviewing the emission targets. In practice, it would allow the Commission to evaluate possible changes in the scientific and technological context that may affect the objective. Ultimately, it would be in the hands of governments and Parliament to change it.
The Paris agreement
In parallel, the twenty-seven will have to reach an agreement on what is known as nationally determined contribution. In practice this is what percentage the EU is going to reduce emissions between now and 2035 to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. The governments were unable to agree in September and limited themselves to making public a declaration of intent.
That declaration established the commitment in a range of 66.25% to 72.5% emissions reduction of greenhouse gases, compared to 1990 levels. The goal is leave this meeting with a firm agreement face to the COP3
Agree on that contribution requires unanimitywhile closing an agreement on the climate law only requires a qualified majoritythat is, at least 55% of the countries that represent 65% of the population. Besides, The law will have to be negotiated with the European Parliament. A paradox that the Danes will have to deal with during a negotiation that threatens to drag on all day.
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