For more than a thousand years, Iceland has been a singular example of peace. and without having participated in an armed conflict since the 16th century, except for the so-called ‘Cod Wars’ with the United Kingdom in the 1970s, the island nation has maintained a low profile on defense.
In fact, the Institute of Economics and Peace, based in Sydney (Australia), has placed it in the first place for the last 17 years. Its membership in NATO since its founding in 1949 has not involved its own troops, but rather the hosting of foreign forces and logistical support.
This serenity, however, could be coming to an end. He which opens new sea routes and exposes strategic resourceshas turned the region into a maneuvering board where Russia and China increase their naval presence. In this context, voices within the country warn that Iceland cannot continue to rely solely on its geographical isolation or the protection of its allies.
Proposals from Icelandic society in the face of growing concern
The activist group Guardians of Iceland proposes the creation of a small defense force of 2,000 professional soldierscapable of protecting critical infrastructure and holding a front line until the arrival of NATO reinforcements. The initiative also includes an ambitious military training program to create a reserve of up to 40,000 citizens, a tenth of the population, who could be mobilized in an emergency.
“We envision a defense capability based on a reduced ground forcea national reserve and a civil defense and resilience frameworkworking closely with the coast guard and our international partners,” he explains in Arnor Sigurjonssondefense expert and co-founder of the movement along with Dadi Freyr Olafssoncomputer specialist.
“This structure would provide a credible deterrencea quick response in the face of crises and greater self-sufficiency within NATO,” he adds.
Among the main vulnerabilities, the document mentions the submarine communications cablesvital for the country’s connectivity and potential target of sabotage, and the Iceland’s strategic position within the Gorenland-Iceland-United Kingdom maritime corridor, key for the Russian Northern Fleet’s access to the Atlantic.
For some experts, these fears are not unfounded. Bjarni Mar Magnussonprofessor of international law at Bifrost University, notes that European security has changed radically since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
“The increase of public and political debate on security and defense in Iceland is due to a combination of factors, including the Russian invasion of Ukraine, pressure within NATO to increase defense spending and its consequent impact on Europe, as well as the President Trump threatens to annex Greenlandneighboring Danish territory,” he details.
Sigurjonsson, for his part, warns of the country’s shortcomings in the face of modern technological threats from Russia: “We do not have air defenses or anti-drone systems. “We do not have the tools necessary to respond to an incident of this type.”
The Government is reluctant
Icelandic unrest has not gone unnoticed. Just two weeks ago, the German Defense Minister, Boris Pistoriusvisited Reykjavík and signed a contract with the Icelandic authorities letter of intent to strengthen cooperation in joint military planning and acquisitions.
Even the president of the United States, Donald Trumpwould have shown its attention to the matter, since the Icelandic Prime Minister Kristrun Frostadottir He declared that the US president assured him that he was “very aware of our defense situation” and the 1951 security agreement between both countries.
For now, the Icelandic government has been reluctant. “I don’t think we’ll see an Icelandic army in my lifetime,” Frostadottir said at a recent summit. However, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has commissioned Parliament to prepare the first formal defense strategy of the country.
In a recent report, a parliamentary committee warned that geographical isolation no longer offers the protection it once did and warned that Iceland would be “inevitably dragged” into any European conflict that involved NATO.
Furthermore, relations between Iceland and Russia are not exactly good. In June 2023, four months after the invasion began, the Icelandic Executive, citing the impossibility of maintaining normal relations.
A decision to which the Kremlin reacted harshly. “The decision taken by the Icelandic authorities to lower the level of diplomatic relations with Russia destroys the entire range of Russian-Icelandic cooperation“, denounced the Russian Foreign Ministry, adding that “all responsibility for such developments lies entirely with the Icelandic side” and warning that “all anti-Russian actions by Reykjavík will inevitably be followed by a corresponding reaction.”
From Reykjavík, the Foreign Ministry insisted that the measure did not constitute a total break: “This is not an easy decisionas Iceland has enjoyed rich relations with the Russian people since our independence in 1944. But the current situation simply does not make it viable for a small foreign service like the Icelandic one to operate an embassy in Russia“.
