Emissions began to stabilize in March 2024 and even recorded some drops
China’s carbon dioxide emissions remained stable in the third quarter of 2025, extending a sequence of 18 months of stable or falling emissions, according to an analysis published by the Carbon Brief e platform.
The study, led by Lauri Myllyvirta, from the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), indicates that emissions began to stabilize in March 2024 and could even fall this year, if there is not a peak by the end of December.
According to a previous analysis, CO2 production increased by 0.8% in 2024, following a post-pandemic recovery at the beginning of the year. The current slowdown occurs despite economic growth and a 6.1% increase in electricity demand – much of which is covered by renewable energy, which accounted for around 90% of new production.
The transport sector reduced emissions by 5% and the energy sector remained stable, but the 12% increase in plastic production prevented a more significant drop. This growth was driven by domestic demand and import substitution in the context of the trade war with the United States. The Chinese government also encouraged refineries to migrate to chemical production, in order to compensate for the drop in demand for transport fuels, in a scenario of strong adoption of electric vehicles.
In September, Beijing committed to peaking its carbon emissions by 2030 and reducing them by between 7% and 10% by 2035 compared to that still unknown maximum level. It was China’s first formal commitment to reduce emissions, although the scale of the targets fell short of international expectations. The European Commissioner responsible for Climate even classified them as “disappointing”.
According to Reuters, the withdrawal of the United States from international climate agreements during Donald Trump’s presidency created an opportunity for China to take a more active role in this matter, namely at the UN climate summit (COP30), which kicked off this Monday in Brazil.
