Opinion
The long series of 28 television face-to-face matches begins this Monday, on SIC, RTP and TVI, which will pit eight candidates to succeed Marcelo. Gouveia e Melo has the most to lose… but that could even benefit him.
It is tonight that the long cycle of presidential debates on TV begins. There are 28 face-to-face matches, all on open channels (on SIC, TVI and RTP), with the eight main candidates already positioned: Gouveia e Melo, André Ventura, Marques Mendes, Cotrim Figueiredo, António José Seguro, António Filipe, Catarina Martins and Jorge Pinto.
The marathon only ends on December 22nd, just before the festive season. Then the official campaign follows, at the beginning of January, before going to the polls, on January 18th
Faced with so much abundance, the most normal thing would be to think that such a marathon could result in enormous fatigue for the voters. I believe and hope not. With more or less defects, this model allows for more clarification, more presence before the general public (namely candidates who usually have less exposure), greater clarification for voters and, finally, more conscious decision-making on their part.
This cycle of debates could be very important in this election. Firstly, because things are as close as they have probably ever been before in elections for Belém, mainly because, for the first time in 40 years, the so-called ‘natural candidates’, major figures from each political pole, have not emerged (we don’t have Passos, Costa or Guterres in the fight).
Furthermore, there is an evident erosion of the political and party system, which means that candidates outside the system or even anti-system have strength today that they could not achieve in other times.
In the current scenario, probably 600 or 700 thousand votes, such as the dispersion, could be enough to make it to a second round. Scenario never seen before.
In the Presidential elections, unlike other elections, we are really choosing a figure. A single figure. More than ever, personality, character and individuality matter. This is a one-person position. Here, each person’s personality and capacity are decisive. We are not deciding betweenwho proposes raising or lowering taxes more or less. It’s about understanding who is the most capable: the most experienced, the most serious, the most capable of leading, of leading others behind, of imposing their will, of bringing parties together and building bridges.
Looking at the upcoming duels, it is not difficult to conclude that the spotlight will be heavily on Gouveia and Melo. It has consistently led voting intentions since the beginning of the year. It was once considered an early winner, but has been losing ground and momentum.
How will you present yourself? How firm is it? It will certainly be attacked a lot, by everyone. Given this, how will you react? Are you going to get upset? Make mistakes?
The Admiral fights, not to forget, against five politicians who are or were party leaders (Ventura, Cotrim, Catarina Mendes, Seguro) with very strong experience in duels and debates.
The rain of criticism regarding Gouveia e Melo’s lack of experience and political skills will be the true test of cotton here. And everything seems to work against him. But lowering expectations could end up favoring the Admiral. All you need to do is hold on to the debates. No one will be surprised if Marques Mendes, Ventura or Seguro do well head-to-head. But if Gouveia e Melo overcomes the test, this will be strongly highlighted.
Today we truly enter the final stretch and the decisive phase of a long battle.
We have already had a long period mainly dedicated to understanding the positions and who the candidates were.
We had and are now having the traditional rounds in which candidates make themselves known, contact populations, retain support and in which they mark themselves and try to set the agenda.
Now we move on to a month where the agenda is them and the topic is debates between them.
Debates may not decide everything. But they will be the beginning of the decision for this election. What comes out of this could be decisive in determining who will succeed Marcelo as President of the Republic from March onwards.
