SERGEY SHESTAK/EPA
Ukrainian soldier injured after receiving medical assistance at a stabilization point near the city of Pokrovsk, on the front line of the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine.
Moscow says it has occupied the strategic city in eastern Ukraine, but Ukrainian and Western analysts say fighting in the area continues. Still, Russian capture of the entire Donetsk region is not considered imminent.
As negotiations continue on a plan to end Russia’s war against Ukraine, Moscow this week captured Pokrovsk and Vovchansk. The Ukrainian leadership denies this and accuses Russia of propaganda and “exaggeration”.
This Monday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that “Krasnoarmeysk” – the name of the city in Soviet times – had been captured, citing a report by the Chief of Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Valery Gerasimov, addressed to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
In 2016, Ukraine renamed the “City of the Red Army” to Pokrovsk.
However, the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said last Tuesday there is no evidence of total occupation. On the same day, a senior NATO official told journalists in Brussels that more than 95% of the city was under Russian controland that only small Ukrainian units continued to offer resistance.
Despite the dramatic situation, Ukraine managed last year to take precautions to ensure that the loss of the city would not have the strategic consequences that Russia expects.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces insist that the situation is under control. On Monday, they declared that despite the difficult situation, the defense forces were repelling enemy attacks in the Pokrovsk metropolitan area.
“Our soldiers are preparing for their winter missions. We are reinforcing our positions and equipping them adequately. Last month, the enemy’s plan to occupy the Pokrovsk metropolitan region failed again,” the troops said. General Staff spokesman Dmytro Lykhoviy told Ukrinform news agency that, until last Wednesday, the northern part of the city, along the railway line, remained under Kiev’s control.
Role play?
To supposedly prove the occupation of the city, the Kremlin released a video showing soldiers holding a Russian flag in the center of Pokrovsk. However, Russia has long occupied the city; therefore, it is not proof of capture, but rather an event staged specifically on the occasion of the visit to Moscow by US special envoy Steve Witkoff, concludes military expert Jan Matveyev.
According to Roman Pohorilyj and Ruslan Mykula, from the Ukrainian analysis project DeepState, in recent weeks street fighting has moved to the north of the city.
“Before, the Russians advanced in groups of two or three, before being neutralized on the northern outskirts; now they arrive there in groups of four or five. This shows that there are now so many Russians in the city center that they can advance from there in cohesive units,” Mykula said.
The expert highlighted, however, that, due to the lack of infantry, have not yet managed to completely expel Ukrainian forces from the city. But this will be “just a matter of time”, as the Russians are superior in numbers.
Furthermore, the Ukrainian tactic of repeatedly “eliminating” small Russian groups is not sustainable, according to Pohorilyj. Although Ukrainian units manage to recapture specific streets or areas, Russian forces return after some time because access routes from the south remain open.
“They have a large concentration of troops in the area. Therefore, this will not fundamentally resolve the situation,” he added.
What is the situation in Myrnohrad?
According to DeepState experts, the fate of Myrnohrad, located about seven kilometers away as the crow flies, also depends on what happens in Pokrovsk. Despite the significantly smaller Russian presence in the city, the situation there is still more dangerous.
“There is still some logistical support in Pokrovsk. However, it is almost impossible to enter or leave Myrnohrad, even if the city is not physically surrounded”, emphasizes Mykula.
Ukrainian troops would be supplied by drones. According to Pohorilyj, even now, getting to or leaving the city on foot is extremely dangerous. “But if Pokrovsk falls, the Russians will control every move,” he warns. “I don’t know how Ukrainian forces will be able to leave Myrnohrad in such a situation”, concludes the expert.
According to DeepState experts, street fighting would be practically exceptional in Myrnohrad. Russian troops are advancing towards the city from the north, south and east, according to Mykula. They repeatedly attack the urban center with bombs and rockets to expel Ukrainian forces.
“In the southeast, for example, there is a point from which they launch drones. This suggests that they are having a lot of success in the southern part of Myrnohrad,” says Pohorilyj. The Russians also managed to repeatedly penetrate the towns of Rivne and Svitle, located between Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.
Is there a chance of Russia conquering the entire Donetsk region?
Pohorilyj believes that “only a miracle” can improve the situation for Ukraine. In these circumstances, “the most important thing is to save lives”.
However, the expert refrains from making predictions about the possible consequences of the loss of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad for the rest of the Donetsk region. According to Mykula, capturing these cities would likely facilitate Russian attacks on other parts of the region.
“Its entire logistical operation would be concentrated in these cities, transforming them into bases.” Thousands of soldiers could then be stationed there.
This is exactly what the aforementioned NATO representative predicts: that the Russians will use Pokrovsk as a starting point for attacks on other cities in the region. However, this would not necessarily lead to a collapse of Ukrainian defenses. Such a scenario is considered “unlikely in the near future”.
In his opinion, there is no realistic possibility of the Russians conquering the remaining territory of Donetsk in the next year or two. Experts at the Institute for the Study of War also do not believe that the fall of Pokrovsk will significantly accelerate Russia’s conquest of the rest of the region.
