Data comes from research published this Saturday by Datafolha, which was carried out before Jair Bolsonaro indicated that his son, Flávio, will be the PL’s nominated candidate next year
The Brazilian political scenario for the 2026 elections begins to take shape with the release of a Datafolha survey, which points to a significant advantage for the president over possible opponents. In the first round, Lula leads with 41% of voting intentions, while the senator, recently nominated as a right-wing pre-candidate, appears with 18%. The survey, carried out between December 2nd and 4th, before Flávio Bolsonaro’s official announcement, interviewed more than 2,000 people in 113 municipalities, all of voting age. The margin of error is 2 percentage points.
In addition to Flávio, other names from the Bolsonaro family were considered in the research. , who currently resides in the United States, would have the same performance as his brother, with 18% of voting intentions. Michele Bolsonaro, wife of the former president, performs slightly better, with 24%. However, Lula maintains his 41% in all scenarios. The survey also analyzed other possible candidates, such as , who appears with 23%, and other governors, whose numbers are even smaller.
Rejection is a crucial factor in the electoral scenario. Lula faces a 44% rejection, while 45% of those interviewed say they would not vote for Jair Bolsonaro or any member of his family. Governors such as Tarcísio de Freitas and Romeu Zema present smaller but still significant rejections.
With information from Matheus Dias
*Report produced with the help of AI
