The Dosimetry PL is a legislative proposal articulated by “Centrão” that aims to reduce penalties for crimes against the Democratic Rule of Law. It emerges as the politically viable alternative to total amnesty
The proposal was born from negotiations led by deputy Paulinho da Força (Solidarity) and consulted with STF ministers. The idea gained momentum after Congress and the Judiciary signaled that a broad pardon would be unconstitutional
The technical axis of the project is the unification of the crimes of coup d’état and violent abolition of the Democratic State. Added together, the sentences would be calculated as one, reducing the total sentence time
In addition to unifying crimes, the text changes the prison regime progression rule. The proposal establishes that the change to the semi-open or open prison occurs after serving one-sixth of the sentence, and not another quarter.
The stated political objective is to “pacify the country”. Behind the scenes, “Centrão” aims to isolate the radical wing and prepare for the 2026 elections
The strategy is to resolve Bolsonaro’s criminal situation so that he supports a strong candidate from outside the family, preferably Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans)
For Jair Bolsonaro, sentenced to more than 27 years, the project would reduce the total sentence to less than 20 years. The main impact would be on the closed regime, dropping from almost 7 years to around 2 to 3 years in prison
The text includes the possibility of remission of sentence for studying and reading even under house arrest. This would directly benefit Bolsonaro, who is seeking to serve his sentence at home due to health issues
An immediate consequence would be the release of several prisoners from January 8th. With the new dosimetry and unification of crimes, many convicts would have already served the time necessary to leave prison
The proposal was designed to avoid institutional confrontation with the STF. However, international sanctions against family members of ministers, supported by Bolsonaro supporters, threatened the behind-the-scenes agreement
Bolsonaro’s arrest accelerated the urgency of the project. Allies believe that the former president’s incarceration facilitates negotiations, doubling the resistance of those who rejected any sentence
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