The fourth edition of the Genial/Quaest survey “What federal deputies think” points to a relevant recovery in the evaluation of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) within the Chamber and a more competitive scenario for the 2026 presidential race.
According to the survey, released this Friday (12), 43% of deputies consider Lula the favorite for the next presidential election, compared to 35% in the June round. Another 42% bet on an opposition candidate, creating a technical tie.
The improvement in the electoral scenario accompanies the recovery in the government’s assessment. In the previous survey, 46% of parliamentarians classified the management as negative and 27% as positive. Now, the indices are practically tied: 40% evaluate the government negatively, while 38% have a positive evaluation.
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Among deputies who declare themselves independent, the change is more significant. The negative assessment fell from 44% to 24%, while the positive assessment rose from 8% to 21%, indicating a less adverse environment for Planalto outside the formal government and opposition blocs.
Bolsonaro’s weight divides Congress
The survey also highlights the division of deputies over the role of former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) in the 2026 election. For 42% of those interviewed, an opposition candidate can be elected even without Bolsonaro’s support. Another 42% believe that this support continues to be decisive for the electoral success of the opposition camp.
The result exposes an internal cleavage on the right and reinforces the view that the viability of alternative candidacies to Bolsonarism is still an open topic in Congress, especially given the fragmentation between the Bolsonarist and non-Bolsonarist right captured by the research.
Congress aims for its own re-election
In addition to reading about the presidential scenario, the research investigated the electoral plans of the parliamentarians themselves. According to the data, 83% of deputies intend to run for reelection in 2026. Another 6% say they should run for another elected position, while 4% say they do not plan to run.
The results are similar in practically all groups analyzed, government, independent and opposition; left, center and right; Lulistas, non-Lulista left, non-Bolsonarist right and Bolsonarists.
Among independent deputies, 60% say they intend to run for office, 7% say they do not and 26% did not know how to answer or preferred not to give their opinion.
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The Genial/Quaest survey was carried out between October 29th and December 11th, with face-to-face and online interviews. 167 federal deputies were heard, equivalent to 33% of the total in the Chamber, from all regions of the country. The estimated margin of error is 7 percentage points.
