The resignation of Bulgaria’s government on Thursday ends an increasingly unpopular coalition, but is likely to usher in a period of prolonged political instability on the eve of the Black Sea nation’s entry into the euro zone.
The European Union and NATO member state has held seven national elections in the past four years as consecutive governments have failed to maintain control of a fragmented parliament.
The last government, in power since January, appeared ready to oversee the transition to the euro on Jan. 1, but Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov tendered his resignation after weeks of street protests against state corruption and a new budget that would raise taxes.
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Even the head of state of Bulgaria, President Rumen Radev, who has a predominantly ceremonial character, called for Zhelyazkov’s resignation.
The reaction was muted on the streets of Sofia after the resignation, but some were quietly optimistic on one point: the government had listened to the protesters.
‘It’s about time. A long time ago. There are certainly intelligent and sensible people (in Parliament) who can propose something meaningful and put an end to the abuses we have seen,’ said IT expert Hristiyan Marinov.
Still, Bulgaria will face more elections in the coming months if no new government is formed.
“There is a great risk that we will end up with another series of elections,” said Dimitar Markov, director of the Law Program at the Center for Democracy Studies in Sofia.
Unpopular government
The protests began in late November when Zhelyazkov’s three-party government proposed a draft budget that included an increase in social security contributions and taxes on dividends to finance greater state spending.
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Some of this spending went to the police, security services and the judiciary – the same bodies that many Bulgarians came to despise over the years when Bulgaria was ranked as one of the most corrupt countries in the EU. The budget project was withdrawn, but popular outrage persisted.
Many were already upset about other government actions, including an alleged crackdown on the liberal and pro-EU opposition, which landed Blagomir Kotsev, mayor of the coastal resort of Varna, in prison for months on allegations of corruption, which he vehemently denies.
Protests escalated, and on Wednesday, tens of thousands of people were on the streets of cities and towns across Bulgaria calling for the government to resign.
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They represented some of the largest anti-government protests since the end of communism in 1989 and the broad demographics and politics of the protesters set them apart from other recent demonstrations, according to political analysts.
‘This was an accumulation of things. The tension has been growing over time, and the budget was the turning point,’ said Markov.
Many of the protesters were urban professionals who support Bulgaria’s adoption of the euro and want the country to join mainstream Europe after a difficult transition to democracy marked by organized criminal networks and corrupt politicians.
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But the protesters also included those who fear that joining the euro will increase inflation or who oppose Bulgaria’s official pro-Western stance on issues such as the war in Ukraine, preferring closer ties with Moscow, Sofia’s historic ally.
Some analysts said the protests could lead to real change.
“People realize that their will, when they express it, is important,” said Vessela Tcherneva, deputy director of the European Council on Foreign Relations in Sofia. ‘Whoever the next government is will be more aware and will need to be more responsible.’
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Political uncertainty
The president will now give the largest party in Parliament, GERB, the mandate to form a new government, but he is likely to struggle to find broader support in a fragmented Parliament with around nine parties, some of them very small.
If GERB fails or rejects the mandate, two other parties will have the opportunity. If they fail or refuse, President Radev will appoint an interim government and call an early election, which could return Bulgaria to a cycle of repeated elections if no one can form a working coalition.
Bulgarians remain divided over the euro, according to polls, and there is some concern that without strict government oversight, retailers will take advantage of public confusion over the conversion to raise prices.
“The state has a key role in ensuring there are no major shocks to the system,” said Mario Bikarski, senior analyst for Europe at risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft.
‘In the absence of a budget and in the absence of a government, the risks to the system are greatly increasing.’
