The trade agreement between the European Union and Mercosur, which was scheduled to be signed this weekend, was postponed until January 2024, generating frustration among the leaders of the South American bloc during the Mercosur presidential summit held this Saturday.
According to Regiane Bressan, professor of International Relations at UNIFESP, in an interview with Now CNNthe postponement represents a setback after 26 years of negotiations and recent intense diplomatic efforts, especially by the Brazilian government.
“We are really experiencing uncertainty now because there was a lot of expectation that the agreement would be ratified today. […] There was an air of frustration, an atmosphere of discontent, because there were 26 years of negotiations, and, throughout these three years of Lula’s government, there was a great commitment to negotiate at the domestic level, as well as very close negotiations with the European Union”, said the expert.
Adding: “The frustration is great, because, in principle, we are giving in more than the European Union and yet they are unhappy.”
Unequal benefits and sectoral resistance
According to Bressan, the agreement tends to favor the European Union more than the , especially in the industrial sector. “In principle, the biggest European beneficiary in relation to sectors would be the industrial sector. Remembering that Europe is quite industrialized, especially countries like Germany, like the Netherlands itself, so these sectors would benefit much more than agribusiness in Brazil”, he explained.
The professor highlighted that, despite this, agribusiness in Brazil and Mercosur would benefit from the agreement, although in a limited way due to the safeguard measures and protectionism of the common European agricultural policy. She recalled that the agreement provides for between 10 and 15 years of adaptation to trade liberalization, in addition to new safeguards stipulated by the European Parliament.
Unfavorable geopolitical context
The expert pointed out that Europe is in a more vulnerable position in the current scenario. “Europeans certainly pay an even greater price, because we cannot forget that Europe is currently very divided by the war in Ukraine, which is already celebrating some anniversaries there, in other words, Europe has been greatly affected by this conflict and by a difficult relationship with the United States”, he analyzed.
Bressan also highlighted that Brazil and the Mercosur countries are seeking to diversify their commercial partnerships, which reduces dependence on the agreement with the European Union. “Brazil will not stop trading with China and expanding trade with Asian countries”, he warned, reinforcing the Brazilian president’s statement that “we do not have eternal time to wait for Europe’s decision”.
The professor recognized the European institutional difficulties in moving forward with the agreement, considering that it is made up of 27 countries with different interests. “It is an integration process that accommodates many countries with different interests. Therefore, as an analyst, I also recognize that it is not easy to navigate such heterogeneity between countries”, he concluded.
