Financial agents monitor the release of financial indicators and the electoral scenario
The commercial dollar closed at R$5,200 this Thursday (12.Feb.2026), up 0.25%. The North American currency reached R$5.155 at its minimum and R$5.210 at its maximum of the day. At 5:12 pm, Ibovespa, the main index of the (São Paulo Stock Exchange), registered a drop of 0.91%, at 187,869 points.
Financial agents react to economic data from Brazil and the USA. Global geopolitical uncertainty has also caused a weakening of the dollar. The real has benefited from this movement.
In the electoral scenario, the survey released by this Thursday (12.Feb.2026) showed that the president (PT) would lose the dispute for Planalto to the senator (PL) and the governors (Republicans), of São Paulo, and (PSD), of Paraná, if the elections were held today and only depended on São Paulo voters.
This Thursday (Feb. 12, 2026), the United States announced that unemployment benefit claims fell to 227,000 in the week ending February 7, a reduction of 5,000.
Indicators show that Brazil’s economic activity lost traction in 2025. National industrial production after having an expansion rate of 3.1% in 2024. The services sector had, compared to 3.1% in the previous year.
Data corroborates expectations of an economic slowdown. The (Central Bank) implemented a cycle of readjustments in the basic rate, the Selic, which started in August 2024 and ended in June 2025. During the period, the base interest increased from 10.5% to .
The Central Bank raised interest rates to control inflation, which was above the allowed range in 22 of the 36 months of the government (PT), from January 2023 to January 2026.
The Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) at the last meeting, in January, which is expected to reduce the Selic rate at the next meeting, in March. Economists are still evaluating whether the start of the interest rate cut will begin with a reduction of 0.25 percentage points or 0.5 commercial points.
IBGE will release GDP (Gross Domestic Product) data on March 3rd. In 2024, the Brazilian economy. The median of financial agents’ estimates indicates that the , the , the 1st year of the covid-19 pandemic.
Leonardo Costa, economist at the financial institution, said that economic data indicates still gradual moderation, with a weaker growth rate in the last quarter of 2025.
“Despite the increase in global geopolitical uncertainty, the external environment has been favorable to Brazil, with the appreciation of the real and the increase in external appetite for domestic assets. Among the risks, the main one continues to be electoral risk, with the potential to increase domestic volatility at the end of 2026, even if this is not the case at the beginning of the year”he declared.
For the economist, the Central Bank should reduce the basic rate by 0.50 percentage points. Revised. Previously, it projected a cut of 0.25 percentage points. “The Selic terminal rate is projected at 12% for the end of 2026 and 2027. In recent statements and speeches, the Central Bank has indicated a stronger rate of cut at the beginning of the cycle”these.
BANCO MASTER
Investors are also following developments in the Banco Master case. The ministers of the STF (Supreme Federal Court) preside over the Court this Thursday (Feb 12, 2026), so that Minister Luiz Edson Fachin can inform others about the PF (Federal Police) report on the investigations into fraud at the financial institution.
The meeting takes place at 4 pm, will be closed and will allow the other ministers to also learn about Minister Dias Toffoli’s response to the PF. All 10 ministers were summoned, including André Mendonça and Luiz Fux — who participated via videoconference.
