The former high representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs, Joseph Borrellhas shown his pessimism with this warning: the war in Ukraine, when , will hardly end with a formal peace agreement because the conditions that kyiv would have to accept would be “totally unacceptable”.
During a debate held at the House of America in Madridorganized by the ‘Hold on Ukraine!’ platform, Borrell maintained that the conflict has led to a war of attrition whose outcome will depend more on European political resistance than on an immediate diplomatic pact.
A “Korea-type” scenario, but not even close
In the opinion of the former head of European diplomacy, the best possible scenario would be something similar to the situation on the Korean Peninsula: a ceasefire without a definitive resolution of the conflict.
“I don’t see a peace treaty. In the best of cases, we could talk about a situation similar to Korea“, he noted. But he added that even that scenario does not seem close to him in the short term.
For Borrell, Russia seeks to structurally weaken Ukraine, “leave it in the dark, without light in the middle of winter”in reference to systematic attacks against energy infrastructures.
“There are two wars”: the military one and the war of the minds
The former European leader spoke of a double front: war and information. “There are two wars. One, the real one, in which people die; another, the war of the minds”he stated.
At this point he alluded to Russian propaganda and the growing favorable positioning of Moscow in part of Latin Americaa phenomenon that—as explained in the debate—reflects the impact of the Russian narrative outside Europe.
Achilles’ heel: Western unity
Borrell stressed that Ukraine’s main problem is not only military, but political. The sustainability of Western support is in question.
In the European Union, he explained, The new sanctions against Russia and the mobilization of the 90 billion euros have become complicated of financial aid agreed upon. Hungary’s veto has blocked key decisions that, at the beginning of the invasion, were passed quickly.
“At the beginning of the war, everyone, miraculously, with some exceptions, joined the idea of arming Ukraine,” he recalled. Today, that consensus is more fragile.
He also warned of the erosion of transatlantic unity due to the position of US President Donald Trumpwhich—as he said—breaks with the line maintained until now by Washington.
Russia also pays a price and a glimmer of hope
Despite his pessimistic diagnosis about immediate peace, Borrell defended that Ukraine “has a real chance to resist” if Europe maintains political, economic and military support.
Russia, he noted, is also suffering wear and tear. According to him, he is allocating around 40% of his budget to the war, which strains his economy and limits other areas of investment. “I’m not so sure that time is in Russia’s favor”he stated, alluding to the accumulated human and material losses, .
Ukrainian resilience
Sergio Jaramillo, former High Commissioner for Peace of Colombia and co-founder of the ‘Hold on Ukraine!’ initiative, participated in the same event. He highlighted the capacity for resistance of the Ukrainian people, particularly its women. “Ukrainian resilience is based on human relations”he assured.
The conclusion of the debate was that, rather than an imminent negotiated end, The conflict is heading towards a prolongation conditioned by European resistance and Western cohesion. The outcome will not depend only on the military front, but on the political pulse within Europe itself.
