Will taxes help or hinder the president’s re-election in 2026? A survey by consultancy Plano CDE shows that 42% of the population benefiting from the increased exemption would “definitely” vote for candidates who supported the proposal. Another 40% say the measure will not influence the vote.
Increasing the exemption was an agenda for the PT member and also for the former president (PL) in the 2022 election. The new legislation was approved with support from the government and the opposition. In the Senate, the now pre-candidate (PL-RJ) was in favor of the text, although he proposed reducing the scope of the minimum tax on high incomes.
However, when asked which politicians were most responsible for the change, 70% point to the Lula government, parliamentarians linked to the government or the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad. Deputies and senators opposing the government were mentioned by only 10% of those interviewed.
Can the data improve? There is also what the consultancy points out as a communication problem. On the one hand, 89% know the measure. On the other hand, of those who have already received a salary, retirement or pension this year, only 58% noticed a reduction in the income tax deduction. The rest said the value was the same (20%) or they didn’t notice (22%).
1,000 people with taxable income at source between R$3,036 and R$7,350 were interviewed, in the period from the 19th to the 25th of this month. These are precisely those who started paying less tax this year.
Although the gain for the majority does not exceed R$200, 83% say the money will make a difference. This could represent “one less bill” every month. Most of those consulted used the extra income for basic bills, savings or paying off debts. Only 14% spoke about increasing consumption.
The executive director of the consultancy, specializing in classes C, D and E, Maurício de Almeida Prado, states that the result of the research is positive for the government. The data indicates that the measure would guarantee the support of at least 40% of beneficiaries who declare that they have no political position — around a third of those interviewed. “There is a group that is neither Lulista, nor Bolsonaro, nor left nor right that has a positive vision. In a context of a fierce election, this could turn into a vote.”
This exemption is one of the main bets to boost the voting intentions of the PT member, who is currently struggling to maintain the lead in the second round simulations.
Lula will also end his term having sponsored a , but it will not bear visible fruit this year. On the contrary: the government will have to be pragmatic and strategic in defining the tax rates that begin to be charged in 2027 so as not to give ammunition to opponents.
It has postponed, for example, the presentation of the project with the “sin tax” rates. Some affected sectors fear that everything will be left until after the election, disrupting companies’ planning.
For many Brazilians, the image of a government that increases taxes and spends a lot has crystallized — regardless of whether you agree with it or not. The “tax on blouses” is in the PT member’s account, for example, although one of the taxes charged on purchases on international websites is the state’s ICMS. The governors, in fact, preferred not to touch taxes in 2025, after increasing many of them in the last three years.
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