The White House stressed that any attempt to resist or retaliate against US troops or allies in the region would be met with “overwhelming and definitive force”.
How does Tehran officially react to the attack?
Iran’s Foreign Ministry called the attack “an act of unprovoked aggression and a gross violation of international law.” Iran has ordered the full mobilization of all components of the armed forces and proxy militias in the region.
Tehran has declared that “the aggressors will pay a heavy price”, but for the crippled communication channels, reports of specific Iranian countermeasures are still sparse. From the Persian Gulf region, there are reports of attempts by the Iranian Navy to block commercial shipping. This is also key for us in Europe.
What is the situation in Israel and regional allies?
The Israeli army (IDF) declared a state of high alert and activated all layers of air defense. A massive missile response was expected from Lebanon’s Hezbollah, which has long supported Iran. She also came.
Residents of northern Israel were advised to move to shelters. Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have closed their airspace to civilian traffic and put their troops on alert over fears of Iranian missile strikes on oil refineries.
What does this mean for global stability and world markets?
Immediately after the confirmation of the attack, world stock markets reacted with a sharp decline. Brent crude jumped more than 15% in the first hour of trading. The UN Security Council has called an emergency meeting, but analysts do not expect a consensus given the deep divisions among permanent members, such as Russia.
World leaders are divided: while European allies are calling for maximum restraint, countries in the region are preparing for a protracted conflict with global economic consequences.
What steps will Iran take in retaliation?
Analysts predict that Tehran will activate the “asymmetrical strike” protocol. Since a direct aerial confrontation with the US is unrealistic due to the clear superiority of Washington, Iran will probably focus on another form of combat.
Ballistic missiles are expected to be fired from mobile launchers hidden in the Zagros Mountains. The target may not only be US military bases in the area, but also critical energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Is there a threat of the opening of a “second front” in Lebanon in the coming days?
Military experts consider the activation of the Lebanese Hezbollah almost certain. They expect a massive rocket offensive on northern and central Israel. Hezbollah has an arsenal that can overwhelm Israel’s Iron Dome system in the initial phase, which it has already done in the past. Iron Dome is considered the best anti-aircraft sky defense system in the world, but even it cannot intercept all air attacks.
The strikes could force Israel into a ground operation in southern Lebanon, definitively transforming a strike against Iran into a full-scale regional war with multiple fronts.
🛢️20 MILLION BARRELS A DAY
Markets are trading Iran and the Strait of Hormuz
This map explains why
• 20.3 million b/d of oil and products move through Hormuz every day
• 30% of global seaborne oil trade
• 20% of global LNG trade
• 80% of LNG flows go to Asia, 20% to…— Jack Prandelli (@jackprandelli)
How will the situation develop in the strategic Strait of Hormuz?
Naval analysts predict an Iranian attempt to “quietly close” the strait using smart sea mines and Ghadir-class submarines. In the coming days, according to analysts, we may see intense naval clashes.
If Iran manages to sink even one large commercial ship or tanker, the price of oil could skyrocket within a week. About a fifth of the world’s oil, which travels by sea, is transported through the Strait of Hormuz.
What will be the next operational procedure of the American and Israeli command?
The Pentagon is likely to launch a second wave of strikes (B-21 Raiders and drones) aimed at “mopping up” — destroying surviving missile forces and launch pads that reveal their location after the first counterattack.
A key factor will be the assessment of damage to nuclear facilities. If satellite images confirm that the underground bunkers in Iran’s Fordow were not sufficiently damaged, the heaviest conventional munitions in the US arsenal may follow, which will increase the intensity of bombing around populated areas.
Can we expect an internal collapse of the Iranian regime?
Here are the opinions of analysts diverge. Some experts assume that the massive strikes and the economic shock may encourage opposition movements to new protests, taking advantage of the weakening of the security forces.
The other camp, however, warns against the effect known as “unification around the flag”, where external aggression temporarily quells internal disputes and consolidates the power of radical wings inside the attacked country.
The following days will show whether the regime in Tehran is able to maintain internal security while simultaneously waging war on multiple fronts. And especially – how can he do it in a situation where Iran has lost its main leaders, both the cleric and the head of the Revolutionary Guards.
What diplomatic developments are expected at the UN?
In the following days, a total paralysis of the UN Security Council is expected. Russia and China are likely to strongly condemn the attack and attempt a resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire, which the US will veto.
However, Beijing is expected to use the situation to strengthen its influence in the region as a “neutral mediator”, while Russia may use the diversion of Western attention to strengthen its positions on other battlefields.
