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The El Niño meteorological phenomenon could develop later this year, with the potential to push global temperatures to record highs.
There is 50% to 60% probability of El Niño developing during the period from July to September and following months, according to the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The World Meteorological Organization will release an update on El Niño this Tuesday.
Oh and yours colder sister, La Niñaare two phases of a natural climate pattern in the tropical Pacific, known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
The term El Niño (“the boy” or “Baby Jesus”) was coined by Peruvian and Ecuadorian fishermen to designate the arrival of a ocean current unusually hot near the coast, which rreduce your catches just before Christmas.
Scientists chose the name. Between the two phenomena, there is a “neutral” phase, explains .
The phenomenon can weaken the trade winds constant blowing from east to west in the tropical Pacific, influencing the weather affect movement of the warm waters of this vast ocean.
This weakening warms normally colder areas from the central and eastern ocean, altering precipitation over the equatorial Pacific and wind patterns around the world.
The extra heat at the surface of the Pacific releases energy into the atmospherewhat can you do temporarily raise global temperatures — which is why El Niño years are often among the hottest on record.
“Under these circumstances, a typical El Niño episode tends to cause a temporary increase in the global average temperature of the order of 0,1°C a 0,2°C“, explained Nat JohnsonNOAA meteorologist, told AFP.
El Niño occurs during a period ranging from every two to seven years. Typically, it translates into drier conditions in Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa and northern Brazil, and in wetter conditions in the Horn of Africa, in the southern United States, in Peru and Ecuador.
The last El Niño, having contributed to 2023 being the second hottest year on record and 2024 the hottest ever.
Carlo Buontempodirector of the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, told AFP in January that 2026 could be “another year of records” case or El Niño manifests itself this year.
However, the impact of El Niño would be higher in 2027 than in 2026if the phenomenon develops in the second half of this year, says Tido Semmlerclimatologist at the National Meteorological Service of Ireland. “The global atmosphere needs time to react to El Niño,” he explained.
O last episode of La Niña It was relatively weak and short-lived, having started in December 2024 and is expected to enter a neutral phase between February and April.
To the Girl cools the eastern Pacific Ocean over a period of approximately one to three years, generating effects opposite to those of El Niño on the global climate. It causes wetter conditions in parts of Australia, Southeast Asia, India, southeast Africa and northern Brazil, while it causes drier conditions in parts of South America.
La Niña did not prevent 2025 from being the third hottest year that there is a record.
In February, NOAA adopted a new way of determining El Niño and La Niña episodes. The old Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) compared the quarterly average sea surface temperature in a region of the Pacific with the 30-year average in the same area.
However, as the oceans warm rapidly, this 30-year average may be out of date.
The new method, the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI), compares the degree of warming or cooling of the central-eastern Pacific in relation to the rest of the tropics. NOAA states that RONI is a “clearer way and reliable” way of tracking El Niño and La Niña in real time.
