The escalation of tensions in the Middle East is putting pressure on oil prices and reigniting the question: how high can a barrel rise and when will the impact reach the fuel pumps? Analysts admit that, in a scenario of worsening conflict and prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, oil could approach US$100 per barrel, with impacts on final prices within one to three weeks.
According to Notícias ao Minuto, the eventual suspension of transit in the Strait of Hormuz will have a direct impact on the global oil supply. The concrete effect will depend, however, on the duration of the closure and the evolution of the conflict in the region.
Paolo Zanghieri, senior economist at Generali AM, considered in an analysis note that the coordinated attacks by Israel and the United States against Iran aim at regime change and may continue. According to the analyst, in a previous stage of tension, in 2025, Brent temporarily exceeded US$80 per barrel.
The economist highlighted that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could reduce global oil production by between 15% and 20%. At the same time, he recalled that OPEC+ decided to increase supply by 206 thousand barrels per day, which could partially compensate for the loss of Iranian exports.
Can a barrel reach 100 dollars?
According to Zanghieri, preventing crude oil from exceeding 100 dollars per barrel depends on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. A partial disruption, with sporadic attacks on ships or mining of the shipping lane, could push prices to $90 or more.
Direct attacks on oil installations in the Gulf would have an even more significant impact, but would also imply high geopolitical costs for Iran, including the strain on regional relations and tensions with China.
Christian Schulz, chief economist at AllianzGI, said that markets are facing a relevant shock, although not yet destabilizing. As he explained, the increase in oil prices, the decline in risky assets and the appreciation of assets considered safe havens are expected reactions, but everything will depend on the scale of the conflict.
Ricardo Evangelista, executive president of ActivTrades Europe, highlighted that WTI oil prices started the week almost 10% above the previous close, reflecting investor nervousness. Despite some subsequent correction, values remain above US$72 per barrel, a level that has not been seen since June.
Henrique Valente, also from ActivTrades Europe, pointed out that aviation companies in Europe were among the most penalized, due to fears of lower activity in the Middle East, while defense and energy companies recorded gains.
The Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, is crossed by around 20% of the oil transported by sea and a relevant part of liquefied natural gas, according to data from the United States Energy Information Administration and the United Nations.
Following warnings from Iran that navigation in the area would no longer be safe, some major shipping companies, such as Maersk and Mediterranean Shipping Company, suspended or diverted routes, the report adds.
When do you feel the effect on fuels?
In Portugal, the impact of the rise in crude oil tends to be reflected in fuel prices with a lag of one to three weeks, depending on the evolution of international prices and the exchange rate.
If prices remain high or continue to rise, consumers may begin to experience progressive increases at the pump. If the conflict eases and the Strait of Hormuz reopens quickly, the effect may be limited.
For now, markets follow each new development in the region. The direction of oil will depend less on economic projections and more on political and military developments in the Middle East in the coming weeks.
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