In the second round projections, the fiercest dispute would be between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro
Realtime Bigdata research released this Tuesday, 3rd, shows that in the scenario of the presidential dispute with Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) records 39% against 32% for the PL senator in the first round. Ratinho Jr of the PSD appears with 9%, Romeu Zema (Novo) with 2%, Aldo Rebelo (DC) with 2%, Renan Santos (Missão) with 2%, white and null 7% and those who don’t know or didn’t respond also add up to 7%.
In the scenario in which the name of Eduardo Leite (PSD) appears, Lula has 40%, Flávio 34%, Leite 4% and Zema 3%. Nulls and blanks total 7% and don’t know or didn’t answer 8%. In a third scenario, in which the PSD candidate is Ronaldo Caiado, Lula registers 40%, Flávio 33%, Caiado and 5%, Zema 3%. Nulls and blanks add up to 7& and don’t know or didn’t answer 8%.
In the spontaneous survey Lula has 29%, Flávio Bolsonaro 19% and Jair Bolsonaro 4%. Ratinho Jr and Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) score 2%.
In the second round projections, the fiercest dispute would be between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. O president scores 42% and the senator 41%, tied within the margin of error, which is 2 percentage points. With Ratinho Junior, there is also a tie within the margin of error, with Lula scoring 43% and Ratinho 39%. Against Eduardo Leite, Lula scores 46% and Leite 35% in a possible second round dispute. Lula would have 44% and Zema 35% in the second round and the PT member scores 45% against Caiado’s 36% in a possible second round of the presidential contest.
The Realtime Bigdata survey was carried out with 2 thousand voters across the country, the margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points and the confidence index is 95%. The field date is from February 28th to March 2nd. And the research is registered under protocol BR-09353/2026.
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