The professor of International Relations at ESPM, Gunther Rudzithe assessed, in an interview with CNN New Day this Tuesday (3), that the fall of the Iranian regime is still an unlikely scenario at the current time, despite growing tensions in the Middle East and internal protests in the country.
According to Rudzit, both the Prime Minister of Israel and the President of the United States may be interested in a change of regime in Iran. “In my opinion, what Netanyahu wants most is a change of regime in Iran. And the great hope is that the population will end up rising up against it,” said the expert.
The professor highlighted that it should not be seen as a monolithic regime, as there are significant internal divergences. “There are differences between the armed forces and the revolutionary guard. There are differences between the more conservative, between the religious and the not so conservative”, explained Rudzit, adding that these fractures could be decisive for the country’s political future.
Legitimacy in check
Despite considering the immediate fall of the regime difficult, the professor highlighted that the large-scale protests that took place in Iran at the end of last year and beginning of this year demonstrate a crisis of legitimacy. “The regime, for me, has lost its legitimacy for at least half of its population. I believe that in the medium and long term it will be difficult for it to maintain itself, but at this moment I think it survives”, he assessed.
Rudzit also analyzed how actions in the United States and Israel can influence the conflict. According to him, Trump would be counting on the fact that the American elections are still far away, in November, which would give voters time to forget possible negative consequences of the conflict. Netanyahu, who presents himself as “Mister Security”, could use a possible fall of the Iranian regime to strengthen himself politically.
The expert concluded by warning of the uncertainty of the scenario, worsened by the economic and social crisis that was already affecting Iran before the current conflict. “What will come out of this Iran, which was already plunged into economic-social chaos, with this war it will get even worse, internal disputes will intensify. Whoever is thinking about what will happen in Iran, sorry, it’s pure bullshit”, he concluded.
