The one of Iran it’s being a kind of guerra triangular. The United States and Israel bomb the Persian country, and it responds by hitting back against the Arab countries of the region on the other side of the strait, US allies and that house their bases. They are, in some ways, the American Achilles heel in the area. They are easy targets: although they are relatively protected, they do not have a “iron dome” like Israel. With a fraction of missiles and drones, you can achieve more damage and, therefore, more multiplier effect.
Furthermore, in a protracted war, it may USA don’t have missiles Patriots to protect them all, and carry the stock to defend its main ally and supporter of this war, the Israel led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The damage that Tehran can do to the economies of those Gulf countries is no small thing. First, because many of them obtain strong incomes from turismo and his role as international air hub of the bulk of the flights that go and come to Asia, especially United Arab Emirates. But, in addition, the Revolutionary Guard Iranian, the regime’s shock force, has declared closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which one in every five barrels of oil in the world must pass.
The Gulf countries thus face a stark geopolitical dilemma.
“When the din of battle ceases, willwhat will be the memory that will remain? Has there been trauma to Gulf societies and leaders as a result of being attacked by Iran? Will they see in this confirmation that Iran was the greatest regional danger? Or will the memory that the United States started the war at the behest of Israel, as Marco Rubio said, dominate? At the end of the day, Israel has been the one that has kicked the hornet’s nest,” the expert in the region explains to EL PERIÓDICO. Haizam Amirah Fernándezdirector of the Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CEARC) in Madrid.
The answer lies, in his opinion, above all in the duration and scope of the current campaign. And in the air defense capacity that the United States provides them. Leaving them at the mercy of Iranian missiles and drones could undermine bilateral relations with Washington.
Then there is the damage that the critical infrastructure. If there is a major escalation of war and the cornered regime of the Ayatollahs decides to bomb the desalination plants on which the water of the countries of the Arabian Peninsula depends, or if they even decide to hit the electricity generation and hydrocarbon production infrastructures in the ports, within drone range of Iran.
Geopolitics of the Gulf countries
On May 25, 1981, Arab countries of the Arabian Peninsula created the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Alarmed by the instability in the region after the iranian revolution (1979) and the war between Iran and Iraq (1980-1988), they decided to create a forum for political, economic and military negotiation. The founding countries are Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. These are exactly the ones that are receiving the bulk of Iran’s attacks (they have also occurred in Jordan and Iraq).
Tehran tries internationalize the conflict attacking the weakest and closest countries. Firing missiles at Israel is not profitable, almost all of them are shot down. Launching them against America’s allies could have a more immediate effect: putting pressure on Washington to stop the war. But it can have the opposite effect: creating a new front for the ayatollah regime.
All of these countries have something in common, which is alliances with the United States and American bases and, in some cases, peace agreements with Israel. But they also have a very different geopolitical position.
United Arab Emirates (a federation of emirates such as Abu Dhabi or Dubai) would be the Sparta of the region. Its policy is militaristic, and it provides weapons or logistical support to the chosen side in the wars in Sudan, Libya, Yemen, Syria. Egypt and Somalia. He does everything in harmony with Israel, explains Amirah Fernández.
Then there are the mediating countries, as Qatar, Oman and sometimes also Kuwait.
Saudi Arabia It is considered the power of the Arabian Peninsula, with leadership aspirations in the Arab world and the Muslim world. “You just have to look at the summits organized by the Organization of Islamic Cooperation,” the expert adds. “It tries to coordinate, to show its legitimacy through the presence of the two most sacred places in Islam. It has a priority, designed by the country’s current strongman, Prince Mohamed Bin Salmán (MBS): a large-scale development plan for the kingdom, vision 2030, which requires stability, security, investments and a good image. It is the opposite of what we are seeing.”
Geopolitical x-ray of the Gulf countries
Qatar. Capital: Doha. Population: 3 million. GDP per capita: 70,851 euros.
It is home to the US Al Udeid air base, where a US Central Command (CENTCOM) forward headquarters for the region is located. Qatari foreign policy seeks a mediator profile. He has been involved in the entire indirect negotiation process between Hamas and Israel. Qatar does not maintain full diplomatic relations with Israel, only occasional contacts. It maintains a strategic security and economic relationship with the United States that defines its geopolitical position.
United Arab Emirates. Capital: Abu Dhabi. Population: 11 million. GDP per capita: 46,446 euros.
It has the US Al Dhafra air base, used for military deployments and surveillance missions. The Emirates established diplomatic relations with Israel in the Abraham Accords promoted by the United States. It maintains a strategic partnership with Washington.
Saudi Arabia. Capital: Riyadh. Population: 35 million. GDP per capita: 32,448 euros.
The United States uses Prince Sultan Air Base. Saudi Arabia is conceived as the central power of the Arab world and the Gulf. The link with Washington has been a pillar. American presidents visit and treat Saudi monarchs with respect. There was speculation that he might establish diplomatic relations with Israel just before the October 7 attack, but that possibility has since been receded as Riyadh believes genocide has been committed in Gaza. They do have strong economic ties.
Jordan. Capital: Amman. Population: 12 million. GDP per capita: 4,267 euros.
Allows the United States the use of the Muwaffaq Salti (Azraq) air base for deployments associated with regional security. Jordanian geopolitics is highly conditioned by the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, because it hosts a large number of Palestinian refugees (Queen Rania herself is one). It maintains good relations with the United States. It is a neighbor and maintains relations with Israel.
Oman. Capital: masked. Population: 5 million. GDP per capita: 18,741 euros.
Allows the use of ports and airports in the United States. It is strategically located around the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil passes and which is now de facto closed. It is an eminently diplomatic country, and it acted as a mediator and host in the negotiations between the United States and Iran prior to the attack. In relation to Israel, Oman has maintained contacts and specific gestures over decades, but has been reluctant to sustain formal normalization.
Bahrain. Capital: Manama. Population: 2 million. GDP per capita: 27,396 euros.
In the country there is a prominent US naval presence associated with the 5th Fleet, based in the capital Manama and a support infrastructure that makes the kingdom an anchor point for Washington’s security architecture in the Gulf. Bahrain consistently aligns itself with GCC partners. It also maintains a close relationship with the United States. Bahrain also normalized relations with Israel in the Abraham Accords.
Kuwait. Capital: Kuwait City. Population: 5 million. GDP per capita: 30,227 euros.
He was liberated by the US military during the first Gulf War. Since then, it has facilities and support camps that facilitate deployments and operations in the Gulf and Iraq environments. It does not have diplomatic relations with Israel due to the Palestinian issue.
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