As the and opens a new chapter of instability in , the US appears to be benefiting from a Washington that no longer has the political or military ability to focus on Asia. Officially, Beijing condemned the attacks. Foreign Minister Wang Yi called them “unacceptable” and called for a ceasefire — a typical Chinese response to increasingly unpredictable US foreign policy moves under .
A similar attitude had been taken by Wang and. Beijing does not miss an opportunity to present itself as a defender of international legitimacy and stability, although in practice it offers little material support to its smaller partners who are the target of American actions, as commented in an analysis by the Guardian.
Opportunity for China
But beyond the diplomatic image, Trump’s decision to launch — a conflict that is already expanding regionally — creates room for China to reassert its dominance of critical minerals, particularly those related to the defense industry. At the same time, it adds the Taiwan issue to an ever-growing list of American concerns.
Energy risks for China
mainly in the oil sector. It is estimated that China buys about 80% of the oil Iran exports, an amount corresponding to 13% of China’s seaborne imports. The true extent of the imports is difficult to capture, as much of Iran’s oil appears as cargo from Indonesia or Malaysia to circumvent US sanctions.
Hurt but not destruction
The loss of cheap Iranian oil would be a blow to China, but not catastrophic. But it’s only been two months since the US effectively took control of Venezuela’s oil industry — another, albeit smaller, source of cheap supplies for Beijing.
According to an analysis by Erica Downs of Columbia University, more than 20% of China’s oil imports in 2025 came from countries such as Venezuela, Iran and Russia, which were under sanctions. Two of these supply chains are now at risk.
At the same time, the head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, Kirill Dmitriev, warned that prices may soon exceed $100 a barrel. The Brent price has already reached $82 — the highest level in 14 months.
The timing is difficult for China, which faces rising energy demand due to the rapid development of data centers for artificial intelligence — one of the key pillars of its economic strategy for the coming years. As Alicia García-Herrero of Natixis notes, the trend is clear: China has access to less and less oil at below-market prices.
The China-Iran deal is at risk
A Shanghai think tank with government connections has warned that the $400 billion China-Iran 2021 strategic deal could be at risk if leadership in Tehran shifts and turns to the West.
China is energetically prepared
Despite the risks, China has prepared. Only a small part of the 400 billion of the 2021 agreement has been implemented. In addition, Beijing last year spent significant resources to increase its oil reserves, anticipating possible geopolitical turmoil. Crude imports rose 4.4%, with more than 80% of that increase going into storage.
This allows China to withstand supply disruptions — whether from the loss of Iranian oil or problems in the Strait of Hormuz — for several months.
Greater impact for America
Some analysts estimate that the biggest impact from a shock to oil prices will be in the US, where the Trump administration is trying to contain inflation ahead of midterm elections.
Potential benefits for China from the conflict
The new US operation in Iran will deplete US and Israeli arms stockpiles. The Pentagon had already limited arms shipments to Ukraine due to low stockpiles. According to a Guardian report, it has only 25% of the Patriot systems required for its operational plans.
Despite this, the US has deployed in the Middle East advanced systems such as Patriot, Thaad and F‑35. All of these rely on semiconductors and radars that require gallium — a critical mineral whose supply chain China controls. Last year, Beijing halted exports of gallium and rare earths, causing major upheaval in global industries.
Beijing has an advantage over Washington
Analysts believe that US reliance on Chinese critical materials strengthens Beijing’s negotiating position ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting. The Atlantic Council’s Joseph Webster notes that Beijing “would be happy to see the US spend precious missile reserves in a secondary theater of operations,” reducing the resources that would be available in a possible Taiwan scenario.
CSIS’s Matthew Funaiole points out that gallium is primarily used in sensors, not expendable munitions parts. The real American vulnerability lies in the production, upgrading and maintenance of the entire ecosystem of these systems. US efforts to create alternative supply chains are still in their infancy.
Geopolitical implications for China
But there are also risks. The extermination of two leaders of countries that were considered China’s strategic partners within a few months could damage its image in the global South. Iran had recently joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS, while China had brokered the Iran–Saudi rapprochement — an initiative that now appears weakened.
However, an American foreign policy absorbed by yet another complex and unpredictable conflict far from Asia will likely do more good than harm for Beijing.
