With the arrival of March, the weather forecast looks promising and indicates the arrival of warmer days. However, experts warn that the proverbial winter scarecrow has not yet said its last word. Dramatic warming is looming in the eastern United States. The US Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlook on March 6 to 12 shows that warmer weather will spread over most of the country, including the hard-pressed Northeast, he writes.
The winter scarecrow still cuts in the background. “We’re not quite done with the impact of the polar vortex yet,” portal meteorologist Paul Pastelok said for the well-known newspaper. This infamous weatherman the phenomenon partially affected the weather already at the end of February and, according to meteorologists, it may continue throughout March. Pastelok reports that one “prong” of the vortex is currently extending into eastern North America, although it is not the only factor influencing the weather.
“Another sudden stratospheric warming seems almost inevitable, and this time it should be the splitting of the polar vortex. It is expected by the end of the first week of March.” warns MIT polar vortex expert Judah Cohen. Sudden stratospheric warming is a sharp increase in temperature high above the Arctic that disrupts the polar vortex and can create the conditions for significant changes in winter weather with a delay of several weeks.
Paradoxically, this eddy split will not bring immediate frost to the eastern US. Above-average temperatures are expected in many eastern areas between March 5 and 15. “This will lead to rapid snowmelt and the formation of ice barriers from the Ohio River Valley to the Northeast, which can cause flooding,” warns Pastelok. Milder weather in the east should last until the spring equinox. In late March or early April, the cold weather may return and linger longer.
So who will take the hardest hit of the split vortex early on? “Although the splitting of the polar vortex raises expectations of a harsh winter, the only guarantee is that it will likely bring a milder period lasting several weeks to the eastern US. Conversely, colder and stormier weather is more likely to bring the western United States.” adds Cohen in conclusion.
The split core of the polar vortex will also affect Europe, claims the website. The first half of March will take place on the old continent in a clear trend of warmer and more stable weather. In mid-March, warm weather should continue to dominate, especially in Western, Central and Northern Europe. However, forecasts indicate that a “drop” of colder air may already appear further east.
At the end of March and the beginning of April, we are already in the full window of stratospheric influences. Trends show that high pressure could return over the Greenland area. This would allow Atlantic lows to penetrate deeper into Europe, which would bring cooler, wetter oceanic air mass from the west and northwest, pushing the untimely warmth further east.
