Before open war against Iran next to Israel, Donald Trump For weeks he asked his advisors for briefings to study how military action could allow him project strength within the United States. At that time he received numerous warnings of the difficulties he would have in containing a escalation and the risk that starting the conflict could represent for the Republican Party in the face of the November legislative electionsin which the House of Representatives and a third of the Senate are renewed and where, with his party’s current control of Congress hanging in the balance, the future of your own agenda is at stake. Your Israeli ally, Benjamin Netanyahuafter agreeing to a ceasefire in Gazahas also chosen to embrace war again in an election year: the next legislative elections are scheduled for October in which his position as prime minister will be at stake.
The decision Trump made exposes his political calculation and his conviction that a war that he does not label as such but as “major combat operations” and which, he said this week, he believes can be militarily resolved in “four or five weeks,” will not take its toll on him.
The White House and the Republicans, however, in their message have to deal with unknowns that not even the extreme self-confidence that Trump expresses resolves: How long can the conflict last?what will be the scope of the Iranian responsehow many American victims They will be accumulated on the six soldiers already deceased and the impact that the war ends up having on gasoline prices and, in general, on the cost of living, the main concern of American voters.
The surveys
The first surveys since the first bombs fell in Iran do not apparently justify Trump’s calmness. In one carried out in the 48 hours following the attack on Reuters only the 27% of Americans gave their approval of war and 43% rejected it. In another poll by ‘The Washington Post’ support rose to 39% but rejection also rose to 52%. And in another CNN poll the disapproval reached 59%, including 68% of independent voters.
The president and some of his advisors and defenders, however, see important nuances in these polls. On CNN, 77% of Republicans supported Trump’s decision. According to one from the conservative Fox News network, 98% of the Republican’s most loyal base continues to support him.
In an electoral year that even before the war did not have the best prospects for the Republicans, there are those who fear that the possible blue wave (the color of the democrats) becomes a tsunami in November, especially in the Lower House, Trump and his followers, however, look to historical precedents like that of 2002when in the legislative elections the Republicans gained seats despite the start of the Afghanistan war (although in 2006 they suffered a beating for opposition to the Iraq war).
They also rely on the majority support they have shown since Saturday republican congressmeneven those fighting in very competitive districts. And some moderate Democrats, also in hotly contested districts in November, have publicly shown support, however lukewarm, for the war.
MAGA Gap
Trump and his Administration have spent the week denying the significance of the rift with the MAGA movement that his decision to go to war has deepened. This fracture had already become evident in the case of the Jeffrey Epstein files and has been exposed again, intensified, in some of the most influential voices on the right and far-right. And the tension in the MAGA coalition is evident.
“Whatever Trump’s new twisted MAGA perversion is, he is going to lose in the legislative elections,” he predicted. Marjorie Taylor-Greenethe former Georgia congresswoman who broke with Trump publicly after intense clashes over the Epstein case. She has sharply criticized the war as a “betrayal” and has warned that it will take its toll in November. And he also recalled that “the Republican Party already has a voting problem with women” that is going to worsen due to the lack of action in the Epstein case and due to the insults and attacks on credibility that are launched from the right against the victims. “Good luck trying to get Republican women to vote for you insensitive clowns in November,” he wrote on X.
Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu will spend more than half of his electoral mandate mired in several wars. Its soldiers devastated the Gaza Strip, southern Lebanon and, now, seek to destroy Iran. Only King Bibi could have imagined surviving a historic mistake such as the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, but it seems that the recent offensive against the Persian country, promoted hand in hand with the United States, will draw him a smooth path towards the electoral event this October. Together with US President Donald Trump, both conservative leaders embrace war in an election year. However, the reactions of the population are not the same in Israel as in Washington.
Closing of ranks in Israel
Just as happened after October 7, all opposition to Netanyahu on the streets and in politics has dissipated and they have closed rows with the war strategy of the most right-wing Government in the history of Israel. 81% of Israeli citizens support attacks on Iran, while 63% believe the campaign should continue until the fall of the Iranian regime, according to a survey published by the country’s Institute for National Security Studies this week. This has been transferred into a increase in popularity for him Likud of Netanyahu, although not in a supposed electoral victory. His bloc would not gain seats if elections were held today, as Likud’s rise appears to come at the expense of other Likud parties. coalitionaccording to a new survey conducted for Zman Yisrael.
The last two and a half years in the Middle East have shown that reality can change from one moment to the next. There is a long way to go until the end of October, when elections are called in Israel. Rumors of an electoral advance are still present, although a source from Netanyahu’s coalition acknowledges in ‘The Times of Israel’ that Prime Minister unlikely to anticipate elections to capitalize on war profits because that would seem “cynical” and he may be hoping for a bigger incentive in the future. Israeli political experts say that although an Israeli victory in the war against Iran would give it a boost in the polls, it could not guarantee it a victory in the next national elections.
However, if the regime fell and that would lead, in turn, to an expansion of the Abraham Accords with Arab countries that are also receiving attacks from Iran, Your prospects would improve significantly. The precedent of the previous offensive with Iran does not guarantee an electoral victory. During the 12 day war Last June, Netanyahu’s bloc won between 48 and 54 of the 120 seats in the Knesset, the Israeli Parliament, in the polls. Analysts warn that it is too early to sign the political obituary of the longest-serving prime minister in the country’s history. Israeli society knows that its leader has a military and political arsenal capable of taking Israel and the region back to an unknown point.
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