The president (PT) is in a technical tie with the senator (PL-RJ) and the governor of São Paulo, (Republicans), in second round simulations for the 2026 presidential elections, according to the Meio Ideia survey released this Wednesday (11).
In the scenario of dispute between Lula and Flávio, the president appears with 47% of voting intentions, against 45% for the senator. In the confrontation with Tarcísio, Lula has 46% and the governor, 45%. The difference in both cases is within the margin of error of 2.5 percentage points.
The survey interviewed 1,500 people across Brazil from Friday (6) until this Tuesday (10), through telephone interviews. The 95% confidence interval. The survey is registered with the Electoral Court under protocol BR-00386/2026-Brasil.
In the other second round scenarios tested by the research, Lula appears ahead of his opponents. He scores 47% against 41%. (-PR), 46% against 38% for Romeu Zema (Novo-MG), 46% against 37% for (PSD-GO), 47% against 29% for (PSD-RS), 47% against 25% for Renan Santos (Missão) and 47% against 19% for Aldo Rebelo (DC).
In the three stimulated first-round scenarios in which they were tested together in the research, Lula and Flávio have a large advantage over the others. The PT member scores 40% across the board, the senator fluctuates between 35% and 36%, within the margin of error, and the others are below 10%.
Ratinho Jr, Eduardo Leite, and Ronaldo Caiado appear with 9%, 4% and 5%, respectively, when they are tested. Tarcísio appears with 36% in the scenario in which he is inserted in Flávio’s place, compared to 40% for Lula.
The current president is the candidate with the greatest rejection among the names tested: 43.6% of those interviewed say they would not vote for him at all. Jair Bolsonaro’s son appears next, with 34.5%. The rest are below 16%.
In the government’s general assessment, 45.3% classify management as bad or terrible, and 34.6% as excellent or good. Another 18.3% rate it as regular. Regarding the president’s personal approval, 50.5% disapprove and 47.2% approve.
When asked whether Lula deserves to continue in office after the end of his term, 50.6% said no, compared to 46.7% who answered yes.
