Iran is “putting pressure on the entire world through oil and gas shortages.” In the West there are movements to unblock this pressure
The economic impacts of the war in Iran began to be felt immediately in the price of fuel and there is a fear of an increase in the prices of food and services, for example. It turns out that this is exactly Tehran’s objective: “To put pressure on the entire world through the scarcity of oil and gas so that the war ends quickly”, since Iran’s offensive capabilities become more weakened “with each passing day”, says Major General Jorge Saramago.
But both Donald Trump and Emmanuel Macron will not accept that Iran “uses energy as a way of putting pressure on the world”, highlights Jorge Saramago. “If necessary by force, they will create conditions for energy to flow.”
This Tuesday, the French head of state even announced a new operation for the Strait of Hormuz, which will theoretically allow several commercial ships to be escorted, in order to return some “freedom of navigation and maritime security” to the region – Macron’s words.
Ships stopped circulating through the Strait of Hormuz, overcome by the fear of being hit by Tehran’s offensives. Without the ability to pay for damages, as insurance companies do not cover damage caused by war, shipowners do not risk losing their cargo or ships. Iran has thus immobilized the route through which 20% of the oil consumed around the world passes and which Macron intends to “gradually reopen”. As?
First of all, the maneuver has to be coordinated with the Americans, who were in charge of “melting” the forces on land, explains Major General Jorge Saramago. “Most likely, the US will bring the aircraft carrier it had in the Arabian Sea, and its support squadron, closer to the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz. Another aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, has been ordered to move somewhere in the Red Sea.”
The most recent deployments allow the Americans, “since Monday, to launch ground and air attacks on targets on land, therefore bombing Iranian positions from which Tehran can shoot down ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf.” For Jorge Saramago, this will be the first movement in the United States.
As for France: after having ordered the movement of the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle closer to Israel, it can now “detach one or two” of the three warships accompanying the main French warship. “Macron will deploy one or two of these ships or order more frigates to move to the Arabian Sea, near the Gulf of Oman.”
All the preparation culminates in the escort of a “train” of oil tankers who, according to Jorge Saramago, are forced to follow predictable trajectories, since the strait, at its tightest point, “is around 35 kilometers”. “In an environment where the threat includes missiles, drones, small vessels, GNSS/AIS interference and potentially mines, a very large convoy becomes an easier target to locate, saturate and disrupt,” notes the major general.
Escorted by planes and warships from the United States, France and all countries that join the initiative – and that have air defense -, “the line of oil tankers remains protected, the ships fill the tanks and are then escorted in the opposite direction”. At this point it is expected that they will be better protected from Iranian attacks, given that “there are no longer any Iranian forces that can shoot directly, it has to be done with missiles and drones”.
The escort itself “will not actually harm anyone”
Even without Macron specifying the names of other countries, the movements near the strait indicate that the initiative appears to have the support of the USA and the Germans, who “have also moved warships to Cyprus”. Jorge Saramago anticipates the addition of more Western naval assets.
“There will be a kind of coalition of wills”, adds Lieutenant General Rafael Martins. In addition to the USA and France, England will also be one of the “big interested parties, because it has bases there and many businesses in the area”. There is also Turkey and the Gulf countries, which have “a lot of money and some resources”.
During his visit to Cyprus, Macron made it clear that the operation in the Strait will be “purely defensive”, at least as far as French participation is concerned. “It is the USA and Israel that conduct the offensive operations”, explains Major General Jorge Saramago – and emphasizes that the American and Israeli forces “will attack the fixed military positions that Iran has on land and from which they can reach the boats with land systems”.
When this is achieved by the US and Israel, Tehran can continue to attack with drones and missiles, but “it will no longer be from the margin, it will be from further away, therefore it is less precise”. The escort itself “will not actually harm anyone, it will not attack Iran, it will just follow those tankers”. If it is attacked, it “defends itself”.
