Raízen, an energy and agricultural giant, announced this Wednesday (11) that it filed a request for extrajudicial recovery with creditors so that it can restructure a debt of R$65 billion.
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Gustavo Cruz, analyst at RB Investimentos, explains that a few weeks ago the company’s shares began to be considered pennystocks – in other words, Raízen isn’t worth a single real, literally.
Gustavo points out that the low value of the shares could worsen in the coming days, not only due to the high debtbut due to , published the day before.
“What could happen due to all this is that it will probably leave the Ibovespa. Just asking for recovery will no longer stay. For the investor, he will treat it, for a long time, as a more risky company”, assesses Cruz.
According to Cristiano Leal, investment specialist and MBA in Finance from B7 Business School, the market was already pricing in a scenario of restructuring a few months ago.
“Shares accumulated a drop of close to 70%, trading below R$1, while bonds [títulos de dívida] of the company were already traded at distress levels, being sold for around 30% of face value”, he stated.
Experts say that investors should take a more cautious stance with Raízen at this time.
“Shell itself, one of the main controllers, has already signaled in a previous statement that it does not intend to increase its stake in Raízen, which reduces expectations of more robust capital support in the short term.”
And he adds: “I don’t see such a peaceful scenario for the company, especially considering the uncertainty about the final terms of this process, which could involve relevant dilution for current shareholders.”
Despite the turbulence with the company’s shares, Cruz, from RB Investimentos, cites companies that went through similar situations and managed to reverse the situation, such as Casas Bahia.
“She requested an extrajudicial recovery and found the necessary breath to continue her business,” he says.
Leal also believes that this other path may be possible, despite being extremely risky.
“It is true that moments of great stress tend to generate asymmetric opportunities for return to investors willing to take risk“, and adds that he does not believe in a scenario of the company going bankrupt, given the size of the operation and the strategic relevance of the group.
Still, Leal highlights that this type of investment must be made by experienced people who are aware of the risks involved.
