surrounding the visit of the envoy to Brazil is inserted in the context of this year’s electoral race. The president (PT) seems willing to revive the fight with the American, but such a bet carries risks.
To recap, after leaving Brazil off his radar at the beginning of his second term in the White House, Trump burst onto the local scene on the eve of the trial that sent his ally (PL) to jail for coup plotting.
the increase in import tariffs on Brazilian products, criticizing the then threat of seeing its biggest local fan behind bars, mixing decisions from the Judiciary and the Executive. It placed Minister Alexandre de Moraes in the shadow of the draconian Magnitsky Law.
Apart from Trump’s ignorance about Brazilian institutions, the perception did not come from nowhere: since the attacks on January 8, 2023 and with a Congress largely hostile to his government, Lula in the political and symbolic field.
This bore fruit for him, especially when he saw his main rival being sentenced to more than 27 years in prison for trying to subvert the election that the PT member had won in 2022.
But there were burdens: there is nothing casual about the fact that Lula and the Supreme Court received negative evaluations at record levels at the same time, as Datafolha research indicated.
In the 2025 tariff war, Bolsonarism went to the pot, supporting Trump’s punishment of Brazil. Lula realized the opportunity and launched a campaign to defend national sovereignty while forging rapprochement with the Americans.
The PT member did well, with the best evaluation moment of his third term and opening a channel with Trump, sealed in a personal meeting in Malaysia. has been removed.
The issue of tariffs was toned down and the Bolsonarists were left with only the loss: they were branded as traitors to the country and could no longer use Trump as their exclusive asset, at least for the minority section of the electorate that likes the American. That credit can be thrown away now.
By vetoing Darren Beattie’s visa shortly after Moraes banned Bolsonaro in Papudinha, on the recommendation of an Itamaraty that correctly identified political interference, Lula reinforces the symbiosis with the minister who led the ex-president’s conviction process.
The formal justification, that he could not authorize the concession while (Health) remains revoked due to last year’s fight, is acceptable, but what the president wants is to revive the spirit of confrontation against Big Brother of the North.
In his calculation is the fact that Trump is currently concerned with something bigger, which would allow him to surf the image of defender of sovereignty. It remains to be seen whether this card still wins a round at the 2026 game table, in the hypothesis of open US support for (PL).
The measure also ignores that the White House is not so distant from the country in an area in which Bolsonarism can take advantage electorally, public security.
Trump’s National Security Strategy, released in December, foresees the resumption of Washington’s hegemony in Latin America. The capture of Nicolás Maduro in January was a demonstration of what sovereignty the republican has.
Last weekend, Trump called on them to fight drug trafficking together. “The US is ready to deal with these threats and go on the offensive alone if necessary”, recalled without subtlety the bellicose Secretary Pete Hegseth (Defense).
Brazil was absent and the possibility of the State Department classifying the PCC and Red Command as terrorist groups came up again — something that, ultimately, leads to direct interference.
This may be a goat placed in the room on the issue of trafficking unfolding, but the fact is that this is a field in which the federal government always slips, to the delight of rivals with more radical speech ready.
