Republican Senator comes 1st in all scenarios in which he was tested by the Real Time Big Data institute
The senator (Republicanos-MG) appears in 1st place in all the scenarios in which it was tested for the dispute for the government of Minas Gerais. The survey by the Real Time Big Data institute, released this Friday (13 March 2026), interviewed 2,000 voters from Minas Gerais on the 10th and 11th of March. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points. Here is the full research ( – 7.2 mB).
The institute tested 7 different scenarios to measure voting intentions in the State. The names tested include the senator (PSD-MG), the former mayor of Belo Horizonte (PDT), the deputy governor of MG Mateus Simões (PSD), the former president of the Belo Horizonte City Council Gabriel Azevedo (MDB), the former deputy (PL), the journalist Ben Mendes (Missão) and the businessman (no party).
(Novo)current governor of Minas Gerais, in 2022 and cannot run for a 3rd term.
1st scenario
Cleitinho Azevedo registered 34% of voting intentions in the 1st simulation. Rodrigo Pacheco got 19%. Alexandre Kalil obtained 11%. Mateus Simões reached 9%. Gabriel Azevedo and Vittorio Medioli had 7% each. Ben Mendes added 1%. Null and blank votes totaled 6%. The same percentage was recorded among those who did not know or did not respond.
2nd scenario
Senator Cleitinho reached 38% of voting intentions in this configuration. Pacheco maintained 19%. Kalil rose to 12%. Simões remained with 9%. Azevedo had 7%. Flavio Roscoe appeared with 3%. Null and blank votes were 6%. The percentage of those who did not know or did not respond was also 6%.
3rd scenario
Cleitinho reached 39% of voting intentions in this simulation. Pacheco had 24%. Simões obtained 11%. Azevedo got 8%. Null and blank votes totaled 8%. Those who don’t know or didn’t respond reached 10%.
4th scenario
Cleitinho scored 40% of the votes in this scenario. Kalil got 19%. Simões reached 13%. Azevedo had 9%. Null and blank votes were 9%. Those who did not know or did not respond totaled 10%.
5th scenario – without Cleitinho
A 5th simulation tested a scenario without the presence of Cleitinho Azevedo. Pacheco appeared in the lead with 30% of voting intentions. Simões reached 18%. Azevedo obtained 12%. Null and blank votes were 10%. Those who did not know or did not respond reached 30%.
6th scenario – without Cleitinho
Another scenario without Cleitinho showed Kalil in the lead with 25%. Simões had 19%. Azevedo got 13%. Those who would vote null or blank totaled 11%. Those who did not know or did not respond reached 32%.
7th scenario – Direct confrontation
The 7th simulation tested a confrontation between Pacheco and Simões. The senator obtained 34% of the intended votes. The vice-governor got 21%. Null and blank votes were 11%. Those who did not know or did not respond totaled 34%.
Spontaneous
O lifting also brings one scenario spontaneous, em what no and presented one list preview of candidates to the interviewed.
Eis o scenario:
- Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicans) – 6%
- (PL) – 2%
- Rodrigo Pacheco (PSDB) – 2%
- Alexandre Kalil (PDT) – 1%
- Marília Campos (PT) – 1%
- Aécio Neves (PSDB) – 1%
- Romeu Zema (New) – 1%
- Others – 2%
- Null/Blank – 9%
- NS/NR – 75%
Methodology
Real Time Big Data conducted interviews with 2,000 voters through a face-to-face approach across the State of Minas Gerais on March 10th and 11th. The survey has a 95% confidence interval, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. The study is registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under protocol BR-05044/2026. The cost was R$80,000 and the amount was paid with own resources.
