The war in the Middle East and tensions in one of the most important energy routes on the planet have put China’s energy security strategy to the test. According to various analysts, The Asian country has been preparing for a supply crisis like the current one for yearsl, accumulating enormous reserves of oil and other essential raw materials.
Several experts, including researchers from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, They maintain that Beijing today has an energy cushion much superior to that of other powers. Some estimates place its reserves at figures double those of the United States, which would allow it to better resist a prolonged scenario of interruptions in global crude oil trade.
An anticipated strategy from power
The accumulation of reserves is not the result of an improvised reaction. When Xi Jinping consolidated his third term at the head of the country in 2022, he began to warn Communist Party cadres about the need to prepare for what he described as “stormy seas” and possible global crises.
Since then, the Chinese government has committed billions of dollars to bolster its strategic reserves of key resources, especially oil, food and other raw materials essential to the economy.
According to Even Pay, an analyst at the strategic advisory group Trivium China, the country’s leaders are especially attentive to what they call “gray rhino” risks: foreseeable threats that, despite being evident, many economies do not adequately prepare for.
Huge reserves, although not very transparent
The exact size of Chinese reserves is one of the best kept secrets of the State. Beijing does not publish detailed data, so specialists must estimate them from budget documents, trade statistics or even satellite images.
Even so, most calculations agree that total oil reserves—including strategic reserves and part of the commercial reserves—are between 1,100 and 1,400 million barrels. The Bernstein Research firm estimates that A volume of 1.4 billion would cover around 112 days of imports.
Other analysts believe the volume is even higher. The Beijing-based Gavekal analysis group estimates that reserves could exceed 2,000 million barrels.
The accumulation continues. Recent customs data shows that crude oil imports grew by 16% in the first months of the year, despite the fact that domestic demand did not increase in the same proportion, which suggests that some of the oil is being stored.
Dependency of the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz
Despite these reserves, the Chinese economy remains heavily dependent on energy supplies from the Middle East. Approximately a third of the oil imported by the country and a quarter of its gas pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial sea lane connecting the Persian Gulf to global markets.
The conflict in the region has paralyzed much of the maritime traffic in that area, increasing concern in Beijing. According to researcher Michal Meidan of the Oxford Energy Institute, the possibility of prolonged interruptions in supply is setting off alarms in the Chinese Government.
An advantage over other powers
Even so, many experts believe that China arrives better prepared than other large economies. Before the escalation of the conflict, The strategic reserves of the United States stood at about 415 million barrelsless than half of some conservative estimates for Chinese deposits.
In addition, the Asian country has reinforced its energy security on other fronts, such as the expansion of renewable energy, transport electrification or the increase in domestic oil and gas production.
Despite this, analysts emphasize that reserves alone do not eliminate all risks. If the blockade in Hormuz were to last for months, Beijing could be forced to look for alternative supply routesfor example through its Shanghai Cooperation Organization partners, using rail corridors connecting Central Asia with the Chinese market.
In any case, the resource accumulation strategy that China has followed for years now appears to be bearing fruit. For many in Beijing, maintaining huge strategic reserves It is not an unnecessary cost, but insurance against crises that sooner or later end up arriving.
