Complete analysis of the nominees for the 98th edition, with emphasis on the record holder ‘Pecadores’ and the Brazilian ‘The Secret Agent’
The race for the 98th Academy Awards has reached a critical point with the official announcement of nominees by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. In a year marked by historic returns and record breaks, predictions for who will win the golden statuette on March 15, 2026 are fiercer than ever.
If on the one hand the long Sinners (Sinners), by Ryan Coogler, has already made history by winning 16 nominations, surpassing classics such as Titanic e La La Landon the other hand, Brazilian cinema celebrates a moment of glory with the four nominations of The Secret Agentputting the country back in the global spotlight.
The scenario of the 2026 season
The 2025/2026 awards season created a polarized scenario, but one of extremely high technical quality. Critics and bookmakers point to a duel of the titans between Ryan Coogler’s visceral narrative and Paul Thomas Anderson’s authorial grandeur.
Unlike previous years, where a single film swept all previous awards (such as the Golden Globes and Critics Choice), 2026 presents an interesting division: while Sinners dominates the technical and male acting categories, films such as Hamnet e Valor Sentimental they run on the outside with strong emotional appeal and impeccable adapted scripts.
Favorites best film
The main category brings a mix of authorial blockbusters and intimate dramas. Check out the main competitors and their real chances of winning:
- Sinners: The absolute favorite. With Michael B. Jordan in the lead role, the gothic horror film set in the American South not only broke the nominations record, but won critics for its art direction and sound. Victory appears imminent, unless voter fatigue occurs.
- One Battle After Another: Paul Thomas Anderson’s new epic is its most dangerous contender. With a stellar cast led by Leonardo DiCaprio, it’s the kind of classic cinema that the Academy loves to reward.
- Hamnet: Directed by Chloé Zhao, this adaptation of Maggie O’Farrell’s book comes across as the “prestige” choice, focusing on Shakespeare’s family life.
- Frankenstein: Guillermo del Toro’s take on the classic monster brought the director back into the conversation, especially due to the production design, although his chances of taking the top prize are slimmer.
Brazil at the Oscars: The Secret Agent
For the Brazilian public, the big headline is the presence of The Secret Agent. The political thriller directed by Kleber Mendonça Filho won four nominations, a rare feat for a national production.
The film competes in the categories of best international filmwhere it is considered one of the favorites, best original screenplay, better assembly and, surprisingly, best actor for Wagner Moura. The film’s international campaign was massive, and Moura’s presence among the five finalists is already considered a historic victory, placing him alongside legends such as Fernanda Montenegro in the history of Brazilian cinema.
The dispute in the acting categories
Predictions for the acting awards indicate close competition, especially among the main actors.
Best Actor
The battle is concentrated between Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) e Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent), com Timothée Chalamet running around outside for his physical transformation into Marty Supreme. Jordan is the bookmakers’ favorite due to the dual physical and emotional demands of his role, but the “delayed recognition” narrative may favor veterans.
Best actress
The women’s category is more open. Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) e Elle Fanning (Valor Sentimental) shared the regional critics awards. Fanning, in particular, has been gaining traction in recent weeks for her performance in a Norwegian existentialist drama that enchanted Hollywood.
Factors that influence betting
For those who follow the odds and want to make assertive forecasts, it is crucial to observe the unions. Historically, the SAG Awards (Actors Union) and the PGA (Producers Union) are the most accurate thermometers.
- Overcoming narrative: The Academy loves behind-the-scenes stories. The fact that Ryan Coogler delivered a genre film (horror) with so many nominations creates a powerful narrative of breaking prejudices.
- Box office vs. Art: F1starring Brad Pitt, surprised by being nominated for Best Picture, showing that the Academy still values technical commercial successes, even though they rarely win the top prize.
- The Conan Factor: With Conan O’Brien hosting, a lighter ceremony is expected, which could favor films with more comedic or adventurous tones in screenplay categories such as Marty Supreme.
Where to watch the nominees
Most of the nominated films reached Brazilian cinemas between the end of 2025 and January 2026.
- Our Cinemas: Sinners, One Battle After Another e The Secret Agent are still showing on a wide circuit, driven by nominations.
- Streaming: Productions like Frankenstein (Netflix) e F1 (Apple TV+) should arrive on platforms shortly after the exclusive cinema window, scheduled for mid-February.
The 2026 Oscar ceremony promises to be one of the most memorable of the decade, whether due to the potential consecration of a horror film or the real chance for Brazil to bring its first golden statuette in a main category. Bets are open and, until March 15th, each studio’s campaign will be decisive.
