Israeli Ministry of Defense
Shavit, Israeli missile and satellite launcher
The escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran has revived fears surrounding a scenario once considered almost unthinkable: the possible use of nuclear weapons in the Middle East.
Although a nuclear weapon has never been used in the region, the strategic dynamics surrounding the undeclared nuclear arsenal of Israel and Iran’s nuclear ambitions remains at the center of security debates in the Middle East.
According to a recent report by , the resurgence of hostilities has once again drawn attention to the nuclear capacity attributed to Israel, which will have approximately 90 nuclear warheadsand the risks it entails.
Israel maintains a long-standing policy known as “nuclear ambiguity“, under which its directors neither confirm nor deny the possession of nuclear weapons.
Alicia Sanders-Zakrepolicy officer at the Geneva-based International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), notes that “it is recognized among experts that Israel is a country with nuclear weaponsbut this has never been formally admitted by Israel or the United States.”
The person responsible warns that, as long as any country has a nuclear arsenalthe risk of intentional or accidental use persists.
According to the Nuclear Threat Initiative, Israel is likely to have nuclear weapons since the late 1960s. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) estimates the arsenal at around 80 warheads, while the Arms Control Association puts it at around 90, with fissile material potentially available to about 200 more.
Analysts consider that Israeli nuclear forces were designed to be used with multiple launch meansincluding aircraft, Jericho ballistic missiles, which are capable of hitting targets thousands of kilometers away, and submarines equipped to fire cruise missiles with nuclear warheads.
This submarine launch capability is what military experts call second attack option: the possibility of retaliating even after suffering a first devastating attack.
Israel’s nuclear secrecy has roots in its particular geopolitical position. Unlike most nuclear weapons states, Israel is not a signatory to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, which means that its facilities are not subject to international inspections.
The Israeli nuclear program dates back to the 1950s and the construction of the Dimona, not the Negev desertand remained secret until 1986. It was made public by Mordechai Vanunua former nuclear technician and activist who opposed the development of weapons of mass destruction, who released photographs and information about the site to the British press.
The program was launched at a time when Israeli leaders, who feared existential threats from neighboring countriesviewed nuclear capacity as the last guarantee against annihilation.
The Samson Option
At the heart of the Israeli nuclear posture is the so-called “Samson option“, a concept popularized by investigative journalist Seymour Hersh in his 1991 book of the same name.
The term refers to the idea that Israel could launch a nuclear retaliation massive if the State itself faced destructionin an allusion to the biblical figure of Samson, who He tore down a temple on himself and his enemies.
According to researchers at West Point, in the United States, this is not a formal operational doctrine, but a deterrence framework based on “implied threats of massive nuclear retaliation”.
In practice, Israel’s defense strategy has historically privileged conventional military superiorityso as to never reach such a scenario. Most experts consider very unlikely the effective use of nuclear weapons by Israel in a conflict with Iran.
Sanders-Zakre warns that a nuclear detonation in a populated area could cause deaths “on the order of hundreds of thousands or even millions“, along with prolonged environmental contamination and health effects with repercussions for several generations.
As humanitarian, political and military consequences would be catastrophic and would profoundly alter international relations. Still, the nuclear balance in the Middle East remains fragile.
Everything indicates that Israel is the only state with nuclear weapons in the region, while Iran’s enrichment activities continue to come under international scrutiny.
Tehran maintains that its nuclear program serves civilian purposesand Sanders-Zakre points out that “There is still no credible evidence” that Iran has taken concrete steps to develop a weapon.
For now, nuclear weapons remain a silent factor in the confrontation between Israel and Iran, and not an active element on the battlefield.
However, its mere existence continues to condition the strategic calculations of both sides, meaning that the possibility of a nuclear escalation, however remote it may be, remains an issue. one of the most serious risks in the geopolitics of the Middle East.
