North American President Donald Trump with Brazilian President Lula da Silva.
Brazil has what everyone wants and seems to be lining up for a new partnership with the USA (but there are others interested in the dispute).
The United States has begun a billion-dollar offensive to gain access to Brazil’s critical mineral and rare earth reserves. It is estimated that Brazil has between 20% and 23% of world reserves of rare earths, the second highest percentage after China. The country is considered strategic for the US plan to reduce its dependence on China, the main producer and processor of these minerals.
Critical minerals, which include rare earths, are a set of chemical elements considered essential because they are necessary both in equipment used to generate and store clean energy and in the electronics and military industries.
Among them are the lithiumo cobalt and the niobium. They are used, for example, in the production of electric batteries, magnets for wind turbines, electronic chips, airplanes, missiles and satellites.
BBC News Brasil found that the North American offensive is taking place on two fronts: one economic and the other political, involving both private investors and sectors of Donald Trump’s government, including the War Department.
economic front
On the economic front, the US is preparing to increase investments in Brazilian or foreign companies that already have authorizations to research or explore critical minerals in the country.
In this area, Americans would be willing to invest “tens of billions of dollars”, forming partnerships and even becoming shareholders in mining companies that already operate in the country, even if still at an early stage, according to sources familiar with the project interviewed by BBC News Brasil.
Political front
On the political front, the United States government intends for the Brazilian government to quickly sign an agreement on the issue. A preliminary version of this agreement was sent by the US Embassy to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MNE) in February this year.
A Brazilian government source, interviewed on condition of anonymity, confirmed that the proposal was received by Itamaraty and that it is still being analyzed as part of the preparation of a bilateral meeting between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and US President Donald Trump.
The meeting, which was scheduled to take place in Washington this month, has not yet been confirmed by the two governments. In the Lula government, however, the assessment is that the country has no reason to be in a hurry to sign the agreement, taking into account Brazil’s potentially privileged position as holder of a raw material much desired by the Trump administration.
Furthermore, the Brazilian government has already expressed opposition to the American desire for countries that enter into agreements with the USA to limit China’s access to the market.
Billion Run
The US economic race to guarantee access to sources of critical minerals gained momentum in Brazil starting last year, when the American government began mapping Brazilian and foreign companies that are already involved in the research and extraction of rare earths in the country.
At the time, an analysis of the sector indicated that Brazil had only one operational project for the extraction of rare earths and that practically all of its production — carried out by the mining company Serra Verde, in Goiás — was destined for China.
In September 2025, the USA announced an investment of 5 million dollars in the mining company Aclara, whose shares are listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange, in Canada. The company has rare earth research projects in the municipality of Nova Roma, in Goiás.
The second major American movement occurred near Serra Verde. In February of this year, the company announced that it received $565 million in funding from the United States International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), a government agency dedicated to international investments.
According to what was announced, the money will be used to refinance the company’s credit lines and guarantees Americans a stake in the company.
Investment in Serra Verde was considered strategic for the USA. Virtually all Brazilian exports of rare earths in 2025 were produced by the company, and almost all production was sent to China.
In 2025, for example, Brazil exported 12 million dollars worth of rare earths, 99.4% of which went to Chinese buyers.
In December, according to Reuters, Serra Verde announced that will end the supply contract with China at the end of 2026anticipating the end of the relationship with the Chinese by at least seven years.
BBC News Brasil questioned the company about whether the end of the contract was related to the North American investment, but received no response.
Forum this Wednesday
Another stage of the American economic strategy will take place next Wednesday, in São Paulo, where the US Consulate will organize a forum on critical minerals. The event will bring together Brazilian and American businesspeople, members of the governments of both countries and investment banks.
The strategy, according to BBC News Brasil, is that new partnerships emerge from the meeting between investors and those responsible for projects under development in Brazil.
At the event, representatives of “junior” mining companies — small companies that own mining rights or are in the process of obtaining them — will present their projects to foreign investors and representatives of the American government.
These companies generally depend on external investment to move from the research phase to the operational phase.
The main projects are located in Goiás, Minas Gerais and Bahia.
One of the requirements for receiving American investments is that, when they start operating, these companies prioritize end consumers from the USA or allied countries, restricting China’s access to these raw materials.
Despite this, experts consider that it will be difficult to completely exclude China in the short term, because the US does not currently have sufficient technical capacity to refine some of these minerals, such as rare earths.
According to Julio Nery, director of mining affairs at the Brazilian Mining Institute (Ibram), “The United States will have to develop rare earth processing capacity, as it is currently only able to refine around 11% of global production.”
The importance of the issue for the Trump administration is so great that representatives from the Department of War and the Department of Energy are expected to participate in the forum in São Paulo. The military concern is due to the fact that these minerals are essential for electronic components used in airplanes, ballistic missiles and other military equipment.
Agreements and disagreements
On the political front, the US has been trying to convince Brazil to sign agreements on critical minerals and rare earths, despite the Brazilian government’s caution. A source with knowledge of the matter told BBC News Brasil that the memorandum of understanding sent to Itamaraty is similar to the agreement signed between the US and Australia in October 2025.
This agreement provided creating minimum prices for critical minerals, legal changes to accelerate exploration licenses, mapping new reserves and investing in projects aimed at buyers in the US or Australia. The objective would be to reduce China’s influence in this market.
Brazil is expected to signal whether or not it will adhere to the agreement before Lula’s trip to Washington. However, the Brazilian government has maintained a cautious stance.
Between aces reasons highlighted by Lula’s interlocutors are:
1. Brazil does not want to limit exports exclusively to the USA or allies.
2. The country intends to attract partners who invest in the processing of rare earths within Brazil itself, instead of continuing to just export raw materials.
During South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s visit to Brasília, Lula stated:
“It has already been warned that Brazil will not do what was done with iron ore. We sell ore and then buy finished products that are a hundred times more expensive. Now the partnership will be to carry out the transformation processes here in Brazil.”
Brazil among giants
Experts interviewed by BBC News Brasil consider that the US movements are part of a global geopolitical dispute.
Expanding American access to critical minerals has become a foreign policy priority of the Trump administration, especially after China temporarily suspended exports of these materials to the United States in response to trade sanctions.
The Chinese decision was seen as strategic retaliation and raised fears of impact on the American technology industry.
According to Elena Rodriguez, professor at the Institute of International Relations at PUC-Rio, “it is not just a commercial rapprochement. It is a very well-structured geopolitical race.”
Rodriguez explains that whoever controls minerals and the technology to process them controls fundamental sectors of the 21st century economy, such as the energy transition, the defense industry and advanced technology.
According to a Unctad report, the Demand for these minerals could increase by 1500% by 2050exceeding current production capacity.
For professor Sidney Ribeiro, from Unesp, Brazil needs to take advantage of this moment to change the raw materials export model: “The target of this geopolitical dispute is our reserves. We need to invest to reverse the current model.”
Julio Nery agrees and adds that it is not just the USA interested in agreements with Brazil. The European Union, Japan and other countries are also in this race.
According to the expert, “the best thing for Brazil is to maintain a diversity of buyers and take advantage of the fact that it has no enemies and can negotiate with everyone.”
The Palácio do Planalto, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the United States Embassy did not respond to questions from BBC News Brasil. In a statement, the Ministry of Mines and Energy stated that Brazil is “open to dialogue and international cooperation to strengthen a more resilient, transparent and sustainable global chain of critical minerals”, holding talks with the United States, the European Union, China and other strategic partners.
