With the conflict – now in its third week – the weight of developments is increasingly shifting to the , the critical sea passage through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and large quantities of liquefied natural gas pass. At the center is , who today sought to portray Washington as the only power that can ensure free navigation in the region, while putting pressure on allies to play a more active role.
During yesterday’s press conference, the US president claimed that the US has struck more than 7,000 targets across Iran, that it has sunk or destroyed more than 100 Iranian naval vessels and that it has neutralized dozens of minelaying vessels. He even presented the US operation as instrumental in reducing the Iranian threat, saying that ballistic missile and drone attacks have been drastically reduced.
President Donald J. Trump provides an update on Operation Epic Fury:
The Iranian Air Force is gone. The Navy is gone. Many ships SUNK. Total OBLITERATION.
— The White House (@WhiteHouse)
However, Trump’s key message was not just about the military field, but who would bear the cost and responsibility for opening the Straits of Hormuz. The US president directly criticized US and NATO allies for what he described as a lukewarm response to his request to help protect shipping in the Persian Gulf. “Some countries are very enthusiastic and some are not,” he said, effectively warning that the alliance would face “” if it does not support the American line.
Europe does not want military involvement
This pressure, however, did not find a response in Europe. In Brussels, EU High Representative Kaya Kalas made it clear that there is no willingness from member states to extend the “Shields” mission to the Straits of Hormuz, despite discussions to strengthen the mission with more naval assets. The main conclusion from today’s council of foreign ministers was clear: no European government wants to become actively involved in another war in the Middle East.
The individual positions of European governments moved along the same wavelength. Germany stated that it does not see any role for NATO in the Straits of Hormuz, Spain expressly rejected any possibility of participating in a military mission, while Greece also made it clear that there is no question of the country’s involvement in an operation in the region. Even the United Kingdom, while talking about the need to ensure freedom of navigation, avoids aligning itself with Trump’s line on direct military involvement, talking more about a “sustainable collective plan” than a military mission.
What is happening now in the Straits of Hormuz
At the same time, the situation in the Hormuz Pass itself remains fluid. Iran insists it is “closed to its enemies”, sending a political and strategic message to the US and Israel. On the other hand, US officials maintain that some crossings continue under special conditions, while a tanker of non-Iranian interests passed through the Strait with an open AIS signal, a sign that a selective “safe passage” regime may be taking shape.
This, however, does not negate the overall problem: shipping traffic remains severely reduced, uncertainty prevails and the energy market is under severe pressure. , while more and more analysts are warning that a prolonged crisis in Hormuz could trigger a new wave of price appreciation internationally.
The Gulf on alert
The effects are already visible in the wider region. Qatar raised its security level and announced a missile interception, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia shot down drones, while the United Arab Emirates faced incidents near critical energy and aviation infrastructure.
At the same time, they are still in the wider area of the Persian Gulf, the Straits of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman, which also keeps Athens on high alert, with daily monitoring of the condition of crews and navigation.
War on many fronts
In the military field, conflicts not only continue, but expand. The US and Israel continue to strike Iranian targets, Iran warns it will target US interests in the region, while the conflict is increasingly linked to the Lebanese front.
Israel is stepping up operations against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, the group is claiming responsibility for attacks in northern Israel, and Ankara is denouncing Israeli action as a destabilizing factor. At the same time, the raids on Iranian territory continue, with targets that include military installations as well as critical energy infrastructures.
Late Monday night, a drone struck the Al-Rashid Hotel in Baghdad causing an explosion and fire on one of the upper floors.
A drone hit Baghdad’s Al-Rashid Hotel, hitting an upper floor and causing an explosion and fire.
The hotel hosts the EU delegation and several European diplomatic offices.
— Clash Report (@clashreport)
US-Iran communication channel?
A direct channel of communication between U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has been reactivated in recent days, Axios reported Monday, citing a U.S. official and a source with knowledge of the matter.
It is unclear how substantive the messages the two sides exchanged were, the report added, noting that this was the first known direct communication since the United States and Israel began military operations against Iran.
