After five years of rule, based on instinct, improvisation and , he finds himself before the first real . , now in its third week, is proving to be an equation that cannot be solved in terms of real estate or trade tariffs. Washington is now called upon to manage the gap between undisputed military superiority and the absence of a viable diplomatic end.
The Clash of Instinct and Reality
According to the analysis of reporters Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen at Axios, President Trump risks being caught between his impulsive decisions and the harsh lawlessness of war. While tariffs can be imposed and revoked unilaterally with a signature, the outcome of a war conflict is not controlled by just one player. Tehran, despite the crushing blows, maintains its own say in the developments.
The ‘Epic Fury’ doctrine and defying expectations
Despite deputy spokeswoman Anna Kelly’s claims of “months of exhaustive planning” behind Operation Epic Fury, the reality on the ground paints a different picture.
- The Timeline: The government anticipated a 4-6 week blitzkrieg operation.
- The Prediction: Diplomatic sources in Washington and allied capitals are now warning of a crisis that will last at least until September, even if the intensity of the conflict eases.
The Geopolitical Chessboard: Israel vs. Iran
Analyzing the intentions of the regional powers reveals the depth of the problem:
- Israel’s Strategy: Benjamin Netanyahu, with a proven ability to influence Trump’s decisions, is pushing for total destruction of Iranian infrastructure and regime change as Israel weighs a possible invasion of Lebanon.
- The Survival of Tehran: Iran aims to demonstrate power through asymmetric strikes (such as mines in the Strait of Hormuz), seeking to make the costs of US involvement unaffordable.
“Buyer’s Remorse”: The Tremors in the Interior of the Government
The climate in Trump’s inner circle is described by the phrase “buyer’s remorse.” Sources say the President made the final decision, overriding the reservations of top officials, influenced by the easy military successes of the recent past (Venezuela).
“He overestimated his ability to topple the regime without sending in ground forces,” says a source close to the White House.
When is a Victory Real?
Militarily, the US has achieved almost everything: the Iranian navy is non-existent, its air defenses have been neutralized, and the leadership of the Revolutionary Guards has been decimated. However, on the political chessboard, Iran wins as long as it remains “alive”.
Without clear channels of communication for a lasting deal, Trump risks being locked into a conflict with no end in sight, where the “winner” will be determined by how well it withstands economic and geopolitical attrition.
