China has been studying President Donald Trump’s war with Iran for lessons that could be useful in a future conflict of its own, according to Western officials familiar with the matter, examining U.S. offensive capabilities as Beijing sees the strategic balance in the Indo-Pacific shifting in its favor.
Beijing is likely closely monitoring American military performance in Iran and gaining highly valuable information that will almost certainly be incorporated into its plans for an eventual conflict over Taiwan, said the officials, who requested anonymity to discuss the sensitive topic. Taiwan is a self-governed island that China claims as part of its territory — a position rejected by Taipei.
China’s Defense Ministry did not respond to a request for comment.
While China is still calculating the economic and diplomatic consequences of the war, President Xi Jinping is likely to welcome the distraction of the US, which is focusing more attention and resources on the Middle East and less on the Indo-Pacific, the officials said. They cited the Pentagon’s redeployment of military assets from Asia to Iran as a concrete reason for the Chinese military to see positives in the conflict.
The apparent advantage for the Chinese military indicates that a second US adversary is benefiting from Trump’s war, after US allies warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin was inadvertently emerging as the victor thanks to rising oil prices and the easing of US sanctions.
Unlike most G20 leaders, Xi has remained silent on the conflict involving an important ally of China, while authorities assess the real scale of the war’s developments. Although Beijing has reiterated for years that Taiwan needs to be brought back under its control, by force if necessary, there are no signs that it is preparing to do so in the near term.
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Xi has also launched the biggest campaign to purge generals since the end of Mao Zedong’s turbulent rule in 1976 — an anti-corruption offensive that raises questions about the People’s Liberation Army’s readiness to go to war.
Former US ambassador to China Nicholas Burns said on Wednesday in London that Beijing has shown the “same intense attention” to the battlefield in Ukraine over the past four years and that it is “not at all surprising” that its military would try to learn from US actions against Iran. Burns highlighted the need for Washington to maintain close military alignment with allies such as Australia, Japan and the Philippines.
“Keeping Europe engaged with the US and with Asian allies is really crucial,” said Burns, at an event at the Chatham House think tank. “That’s not in China’s interest. But it’s what keeps China off balance.”
Influential commentators in China such as Hu Xijin, former editor-in-chief of the tabloid Global Timeshave been more explicit in drawing parallels with Taiwan. Hu wrote last week on Weibo — a Chinese social network — that the war of attrition shows how “stressed” US military capabilities are, even though Iran has already been weakened by decades of sanctions.
“It is indeed curious that some American elites still talk with such pomp about confronting the People’s Liberation Army in the Taiwan Strait,” he wrote.
US allies in Asia are on alert as the Pentagon continues to pour weapons into the war. Washington is sending a unit of up to 2,400 marines based in Japan to the Middle East, along with its command ship carrying a squadron of F-35 fighter jets and helicopters.
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At the same time, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung confirmed that the US may have to relocate air defense systems to the region, amid reports that the Pentagon was withdrawing launchers for an advanced missile system from part of Asia.
According to officials, China also welcomes the rapid depletion of American ammunition stocks in the first three weeks of the conflict with Iran.
US forces have been forced to use up a significant portion of their inventories of expensive and difficult to replace interceptors to counter the Iranian barrage, with low-cost Shahed-136 drones forcing Americans and allies to use protection systems designed primarily to counter more sophisticated weapons.
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The US has not released official estimates of how much the campaign is costing, and public data on its missile stockpiles is limited. American parliamentarians were informed that spending totaled US$11.3 billion in the first six days, according to the New York Times. German defense giant Rheinmetall AG estimated the value of the munitions used by the US in the first 72 hours of the war at $4 billion, including around 400 cruise missiles and 800 air defense interceptors.
For prominent Chinese nationalist voices like blogger Ren Yi — the third-generation grandson of a former Communist Party leader known online as “Chairman Rabbit” — the reallocation of US military assets indicates fissures in the West’s ability to project power around Beijing.
In a long post on X, Ren described how US allies increasingly live in an “Israel first” universe.
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“This demonstrates a clear hierarchy,” wrote the Harvard-educated grandson of former Guangdong party chief Ren Zhongyi. “Israel is at the top, above even US interests.”
He added: “The other allies and partners are at the base, competing for the leftovers.”
© 2026 Bloomberg L.P.
