The crisis is entering a new, even more dangerous phase, as it is no longer limited to the military field, but expands simultaneously to diplomacy, energy, maritime routes, European security and the global economy.
The developments of the last hours show that the conflict is taking on the characteristics of a generalized regional destabilization, with its reprisals hitting energy facilities and critical infrastructure in the Gulf, scaling back their operations and Europe looking, at the same time, for a way to protect itself from the economic and geopolitical consequences.
At the forefront is energy
At the forefront of tension is energy. Attacks on refineries, LNG plants and oil infrastructure in various parts of the Gulf have panicked markets, and European governments are bracing for a new wave of fines. Characteristic of the situation is that the security of the EU’s oil supply is now officially under review, as long as the Straits of Hormuz remain closed or extremely unsafe.
The message from Brussels, Paris, London and other European capitals is that the destruction of the productive capabilities of the Middle East will have far more long-lasting and profound effects than was originally calculated.
At the same time, war tests relationships and balances. : on the one hand he allows or covers the US military escalation, on the other he states that he personally asked Benjamin Netanyahu not to hit Iran’s oil and gas facilities. His position even contradicted other information that wanted Washington to know or even coordinate some of the strikes, as in the case of South Pars. At the same time, statements from the American services and the Pentagon reveal that the US and Israeli goals are not completely identical: Washington mainly talks about the destruction of military and missile capabilities, while Israel seems to aim more broadly at the Iranian leadership itself.
For its part, Tehran is escalating not only militarily, but also diplomatically. Iran is seeking official clarifications from Germany on the role of the US Ramstein base in the war, attempting to transfer pressure to the European field as well. At the same time, he is asking for reparations from the United Arab Emirates through a letter to the UN, accusing them of providing ground or facilities for the American attacks.
At the same time, Iranian statements proclaim that the response to attacks on energy infrastructure is “ongoing and not complete,” effectively warning that the cycle of retaliation remains open and may expand.
The conflict is spreading
In the field, the image shows a spreading conflict. New strikes are being recorded on refineries, port and naval facilities, targets in Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Haifa, and there are even reports of a strike on a US F-35. In Lebanon, the dead now exceed 1,000, while attacks also affect basic electricity infrastructure. Even countries that were on the sidelines of the conflict now see the consequences reaching their lands, which reinforces the scenario of a long regional destabilization.
In this climate, self-protection and avoiding direct involvement. On the one hand, six countries together with Japan declare their readiness to contribute to the safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz and to the stabilization of energy markets. On the other hand, Germany is quick to make it clear that it does not intend, at least for now, to participate in a military mission in the Straits. The discussions in Brussels capture the nervousness of the “27”, as the war in the Middle East intersects with the already open crisis in Ukraine, with frictions over European energy policy, but also with the uncertainty caused by Trump’s behavior towards allies.
The EU Summit, in this sense, is not only about a regional conflict, but a network of crises that directly affects European cohesion. The leaders talk about the need to protect freedom of navigation, to support the states that are closer to the danger zone, to prevent a new energy boom and to politically shield against possible new migration flows. Kyriakos Mitsotakis from Brussels clearly raised the issue of triggering the EU’s mutual assistance clause, directly linked the attacks on oil facilities to the threat to the European economy and warned that Europe must be ready for both energy and migration pressure.
The Greek Patriots in Saudi Arabia
For Greece, the developments are no longer just the subject of international monitoring, but acquire a direct operational and political dimension. The downing of two Iranian ballistic missiles by the Greek Patriot array in Saudi Arabia gave the country a role with a tangible footprint in the conflict. Nikos Dendias presented the incident as proof of the operational readiness of the Greek Armed Forces, but also as an intervention that indirectly protects the standard of living of Greeks and European citizens, preventing a new explosion in oil prices.
The government is trying to highlight Greece’s contribution as defensive, stabilizing and absolutely connected to the protection of critical energy infrastructure.
However, internally the debate takes on distinctly more confrontational characteristics. PASoK and SYRIZA believe that the downing of the Iranian missiles constitutes a direct refutation of the government’s narrative about Greece not getting involved in the war. The reactions focus on the fact that the country appears to be participating, albeit defensively, in a real military operation at the heart of the crisis, with all that this entails for security, diplomacy and Greek-Arab balances. The opposition calls for the return of the Patriot array and the Greek military, while the government counters that the mission serves a wider strategic interest.
