The 2026 electoral contest tends to be defined less by formal economic indicators and more by the way this data reaches the voter’s pocket — and perception. The assessment is from analysts interviewed on the Mapa de Risco program, from InfoMoneywhich point to a growing discrepancy between economic figures and the population’s daily feelings.
According to the participants of this Friday’s program (20), the challenge for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) is not only in delivering results, but in ensuring that these results are perceived as a real improvement in people’s lives. The problem is that, even with more favorable indicators than those observed at the end of the previous government, this perception has not yet been consolidated.
“Ordinary citizens want fewer working hours for more full refrigerators,” stated political scientist Creomar de Sousa, CEO of Dharma and Professor at Fundação Dom Cabral, during the program. “Full fridge, vote for the government. Empty fridge, vote for the opposition.”
Perception detaches from data
The backdrop to this dynamic is the post-pandemic period, marked by persistent inflation and structural changes in global production chains. Even though some indicators show improvement, prices have not returned to previous levels, which directly affects the perception of well-being.
For voters, what matters is not the aggregate behavior of the economy, but how much it costs to maintain the standard of living. This factor has been decisive in democracies around the world and tends to be repeated in Brazil.
“For the average citizen, this doesn’t matter at all. The average citizen wants fewer working hours for more full refrigerators,” said Creomar.
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According to analysts, this disconnect between data and perception creates a more adverse environment for incumbent governments. Even with economic growth or improvements in certain indicators, the feeling of loss of purchasing power may prevail.
Classic risk for those in power
This scenario increases a traditional risk of electoral cycles: the punishment of the incumbent. The logic is straightforward. If the voter understands that their life has not improved — or gotten worse —, the tendency is to look for alternatives, regardless of macroeconomic data.
“You punish the incumbent because he’s not solving the problem,” Creomar said. For him, this movement has already become standard in several recent elections around the world.
In the Brazilian case, the challenge is even greater given a highly polarized political environment. Lula starts from a consolidated base, but faces difficulties in expanding support in a context in which the economic assessment weighs directly on the vote.
Economy returns to the center of the dispute
The tendency is for topics linked to the cost of living to gain even more relevance in the coming months. Fuel, food and basic services should occupy the center of the electoral debate, functioning as a thermometer of economic perception.
This movement is already beginning to appear in the discourse of opponents, who seek to exploit the diffuse dissatisfaction with prices and income. At the same time, the government is trying to respond with specific measures to contain inflationary impacts.
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The risk, according to analysts, is that the speed of perception is greater than the policy’s ability to respond. And, in this scenario, the 2026 election could be decided less by economic numbers and more by the voter’s everyday feeling when opening their wallet — or their refrigerator.
The Risk Map, the policy program of the InfoMoneyairs every Friday, starting at 5am, on YouTube and your favorite podcast player.
