Warfare is changing by leaps and bounds with new technologies, especially with the emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) and drones. They are being keys in the war in Ukraine and they are now . Furthermore, it leads to a situation that the former adviser to the Pentagon Lauren Kahn calls unsustainable– Shoot down cheap drones and missiles that cost millions of dollars. The accounts don’t work out.
This advisor is not the only one. Several analysts warn of this economically absurd anomaly after weeks of attacks in the Persian Gulf. The simple equation: Iran uses drones like the Shahed-136with an estimated cost of between $20,000 and $50,000while neutralizing them requires deploying means that multiply that price several times, using machines as expensive as combat planes. F-16.
The latest generation (Block 70/72, F‑16V) are worth between 60 and 80 million dollars (between 52 and 69 million euros)that is without counting the weapons to be carried or the training of pilots and support, which increases to 120-180 million dollars. The old ones were around 13-20 million dollars per unit.
The former Pentagon advisor sums it up very clearly: “It is not sustainable in the long term in any way”according to statements. The data reinforces that idea. maintain a fighter F-16 in the air costs more than $25,000 per hour, according to industry estimates, to which is added the price of the weapons it uses to intercept targets.
Missiles worth up to a million dollars against low-cost drones
Air defense in the Gulf has relied mainly on advanced fighters. They are effective, but expensive. Videos and intelligence analysis show that many drones are being shot down with air-to-air missiles such as AIM-9X Sidewinderwith a cost close to $485,000 per unit (about 414,000 euros), or the AIM-120 AMRAAMwhich exceeds one million dollars (about 863,000 euros).
The difference is evident: Shooting down a drone can cost 10 to 20 times more than making it. And if even more advanced systems are used, such as the Patriot land defense missiles, the cost per interception skyrockets to 4 million dollars (about 3.5 million euros).
Samuel Bendett, from the Center for Naval Analysis, also defines it along the same lines and in the same medium: “The cost-benefit ratio to intercept a cheap threat is very unfavorable”. In military terms, this implies that the defender is spending more resources than the attacker, something difficult to sustain in prolonged conflicts.
Operational overload: the other problem of fighters
Money is not the only factor. The intensive use of fighters is also generating significant operational wear and tear.. Maintaining constant patrols implies more flight hours, more maintenance and greater pressure on pilots and aircraft.
Kelly Grieco of the Stimson Center warns of this risk: “You can ask a lot of these planes, but There will come a point where they will suffer greater breakdowns and require more extensive maintenance“. That is, even if the economic cost could be assumed, logistics and operational capacity would end up being a bottleneck.
Besides, fighters are not designed for this type of threat. Iranian drones fly slower, lower and are much smaller than typical targets. This complicates its detection and increases the risk of errors. In fact, the Shahed-136 It flies at a speed much lower than that of a modern fighter, which can cause the pilot to ‘overshoot’ the target.
Cheaper alternatives: drones versus drones and laser systems
Faced with this scenario, several experts point to more efficient solutions. One of the most repeated is the use of interceptor drones, a technology from 2022. According to American sources, about 10,000 of these systems have already been sent to the Middle East.
Anatolii Khrapchinsky, head of the Ukrainian defense sector, sums it up: “If the enemy launches hundreds of cheap drones and you shoot them down with missiles that cost millions, the model will not work in the long term.” Also helicopters are being used, which operate at speeds similar to drones and allow them to be intercepted with cheaper weapons. However, its coverage capacity is lower.
Another way is laser technology. Israel already has systems that promise practically zero interception costs, and countries like United Arab Emirates are trying to incorporate them. Even so, these solutions are not yet deployed on a large scale.
A war of attrition where cost matters as much as effectiveness
Since the beginning of the climb, Iran has launched more than 3,000 dronesmany of them against targets in the Gulf. Although most have been intercepted – the Emirates claims to have destroyed more than 1,600 – some have managed to hit energy infrastructure and military bases.
The underlying problem is not only technical, but strategic. As Tom Karako of CSIS points out, focusing solely on cost can be misleading: “It all comes down to how quickly you can stop shots”. The key is not only in how drones are shot down, but in reducing the adversary’s ability to continue launching them.
Still, the trend is clear: modern warfare is rewarding cheap systemsscalable and massive compared to traditional high-cost platforms. And that forces us to rethink air defense.
