Winter is over, but the extreme factors are not abating. According to meteorologists from the portal, the atmosphere is currently being shaped by the disintegrating polar vortex over America and the rocket launch of the destructive super El Niño phenomenon in the Pacific. These two phenomena now determine the nature of the transition to spring.
Current model outputs confirm the lingering influence of the post-La Niña circulation that maintains the deep core of the polar vortex over the eastern part of Canada. According to the European ECMWF model, this mechanism not only drives arctic air into the USA, but also builds a massive pressure high over northern Europe.
For Central Europe and the Balkans, this means a fundamental turning point at the end of March – the expansion of significant temperature anomalies is expected, which will bring an above-average warm flow. A fundamental change in the global weather is expected to occur only with the full development of the dreaded El Niño phenomenon. The latest calculations of the prestigious C3S and NMME models send a warning signal. Temperatures in the central Pacific should soar by more than 2°C above the long-term average.
Such a drastic increase pushes this climatic phenomenon into the highest category, known as „super El Niño“. Spring in Europe will thus bring contrasts. While in the central and southern part of the continent, the ECMWF model predicts for the period from April to June mostly above-average warm days, Western Europe must prepare for a completely different scenario. The presence of a strong low-pressure zone over the Atlantic will trigger a wave of moist flow there, which will bring above average amount of precipitation.
As for precipitation prospects, the European ECMWF model sends an extremely interesting signal for our continent. Namely, the latest maps of long-term forecasts they indicate the arrival of a significantly wetter period, which should cover a large part of Europe and thus bring moisture after the winter months.
The UK’s UKMO model adds to predictions of a warmer trend in Central Europe, where he expects a deviation of +1 to +2 °C from the average over the next three months. If the long-term forecasts of the ECMWF and UKMO models really come true, Slovakia is waiting for spring, which it urgently needs.
The combination of above-average heat and abundant rainfall is excellent news for our countryespecially in the context of the increasingly significant drought, which has begun to worsen dangerously in our territory recently.
