The decision by the governor of Paraná, Ratinho Júnior (PSD), to abandon the pre-candidacy for the Planalto changes the internal balance of the party and reduces the space for a competitive alternative outside the polarization between president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL). The movement also reorganizes regional alliances and weakens the PSD’s national strategy.
Ratinho was the name with the greatest electoral reach within the party. In recent surveys by Quaest, he appeared with 7% of voting intentions in the first round, above other party members. Ronaldo Caiado (GO) scored 4%, while Eduardo Leite (RS) registered 3%.
Even though he was distant from the leaders — Lula with up to 39% and Flávio with up to 35% —, the governor of Paraná was seen as the PSD’s main asset in consolidating a third way.
Without Ratinho, the PSD will depend on names with less national penetration. The assessment around Gilberto Kassab is that Caiado gains space by bringing together two agendas with electoral potential: public security and proximity to agribusiness. Still, the absence of a candidate with greater recall increases the risk of dispersion of the moderate electorate.
Another factor weighs against the party is the fragmentation of state platforms. The PSD maintains different alliances in different regions — sometimes supporting Lula, sometimes Flávio —, which makes it difficult to build a cohesive national campaign.
Ratinho’s withdrawal, in this context, avoids a candidacy with low political support and reduces the cost of a campaign with limited chances.
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External pressure influenced decision
Withdrawal also occurs after direct pressure from the PL. Members of Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign sought Ratinho’s support for the first round, offering political space in exchange for his withdrawal.
Senator Rogério Marinho (PL-RN) even formalized the proposal, while Flávio indicated support for Sergio Moro’s candidacy for the government of Paraná as part of the reorganization of the platform in the state.
The signaling reinforces that Ratinho’s stay in the presidential race would create a direct conflict with the PL’s strategy in Paraná. Without a consolidated agreement and in the face of an unfavorable national scenario, withdrawal began to be seen as a pragmatic solution.
Impact on the presidential race
With the departure of the governor, the election tends to focus even more between Lula and the Bolsonarist camp. Ratinho, even without leading research, appeared as an alternative with capacity for growth, especially in a scenario of polarization fatigue.
In Quaest’s second round simulation, he recorded 33% against Lula’s 42%, a difference that was smaller months before. This performance indicated some potential for competitiveness, currently absent in other PSD names.
The decision also has implications for Ratinho’s trajectory. With no possibility of re-election in Paraná and no presidential candidacy, the governor will be without a mandate from 2027 onwards. He has already ruled out running for the Senate and has also rejected the possibility of being vice-president.
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This scenario reduces his political visibility in the short term and poses the challenge of remaining relevant until a possible presidential attempt in 2030. By choosing to complete his term, Ratinho preserves regional political capital, but gives up testing his national strength at a time when his name was still under construction.
