A movement of folding on the issue of , at least for a limited time appears to be carried out by the president of Trump promised an “energy” truce of five days – that is, they could negotiate a peace agreement that would ensure the basic demands of the USA – but also the interests of Israel – at least as far as the issue of the nuclear program is concerned.
Communication barrage from Trump
With a barrage of statements and posts, the American president appeared to argue that the US is indeed engaged in negotiations with a “respectable leader” of Iran who is not the new Supreme Leader of the country, and that the two sides are very close to an agreement.
Then, on the occasion of the above, information was circulated that the person the US is talking to is the speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
According to what has become known, the talks have been taking place for the past few days and are being attended by Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and the son-in-law of the US president, Jared Kushner.
Other information claimed that these talks are being mediated by Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey and that there is a possibility of a meeting in Islamabad between the Iranian and American sides. Additional information indicated that the US is aiming to “close” the issue of the war no later than April 9, that is, in about three more weeks (they said the same last week that it would last another three weeks).
Iran: The negotiations are Fake News
The Iranians responded to the American communication strategy with a clear barrage of denials. More specifically, the representative of the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Esmail Bagaei, said that no talks have been held with the US since the start of the war at the end of February, and that Iran’s position on the Straits of Hormuz and the terms of ending the conflict remains unchanged.
Bagay added that “messages have been received from friendly countries regarding the US request for negotiations to end the war.”
Along the same lines, the speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, emphasized through his post on X that he and the Iranian leadership are not involved in negotiations with the US and spoke of fake news aimed at speculating on oil prices and manipulating the market.
As he pointed out: “Fake news is being used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and to get the US and Israel out of the impasse they are in.” This was followed by several more officials who denied that there was any negotiation.
“Hand in hand” Trump and Netanyahu for an agreement with Iran
Despite the denials from Tehran, however, Donald Trump – with the help of Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who stated in a video that he believes that Trump will reach an agreement that will in fact secure Israel’s interests – insisted that there are negotiations, that they are ongoing and that Iran is the one that wants an agreement.
According to Trump, the five days in which Iran’s energy infrastructure will not be affected are given because this time Tehran “appears to mean what it says”, because “it has agreed that it will not acquire a nuclear weapon” and so that Iran has “one more chance to end threats to America”.
The Iranians promise “surprises” and appear to set conditions
However, even after this attempt by Trump, Tehran’s attitude remained rigid, as according to reports in Iranian and Israeli media, the Iranian leadership warned that later in the night it has “special plans” against Tel Aviv and regional US allies that “will completely eliminate any hope of negotiation in the minds of the attackers” and at the same time appeared to re-formulate conditions for any agreement.
The leaked terms are indeed strict and demonstrate a tendency towards maximalist positions. More specifically, according to what has become known, Iran intends to continue the war until all sanctions against it are lifted, reparations are paid for the war being waged against the country and security guarantees are given for the future.
Finally, they want to ensure that the Strait of Hormuz remains under Iranian control and that its status does not change (Trump has hinted that he would like co-management with the Ayatollah, whoever he is).
As a counterbalance to the above, the relevant information indicated that Iran may consider showing some flexibility regarding its missile and nuclear programs.
What’s up with the oil?
Markets reacted immediately to Trump’s initially ambiguous statements. Oil prices fell sharply, with Brent down as much as 15% to $96 a barrel and WTI down 13.5% to $85.28, as investors tried to assess the potential stabilization or escalation of the Middle East conflict. Later the picture reversed and prices once again rose to over $100 a barrel, and eventually settled just below $100.
