Air tickets may become more expensive in the coming weeks due to instability in the Middle East, especially on routes most exposed to the region and the cost of fuel. For anyone thinking about traveling, the central point is simple: there are official signs of pressure on kerosene and on some air connections, but this does not mean that all flights will skyrocket in price at the same time or in the same way.
The explanation starts with the fuel. remembers that jet fuel is one of the biggest costs in aviation and its most recent monitor shows a weekly increase of 12.6% in the global average price, to US$197 per barrel.
At the same time, the North American agency EIA predicts that Brent will remain above 95 dollars per barrel for the next two months, before falling further ahead, which helps to understand why companies are looking closely at operating costs.
Impact will not be the same on all routes
This is where it is important to stop alarmism. Based on the official sources consulted, there is no single public table saying that all flights will increase by a certain percentage. What exists is a context of greater uncertainty, more pressured costs and greater sensitivity on routes that pass through or depend more on the affected region.
In practice, the most vulnerable flights tend to be long-haul flights to Asia, the Middle East and some destinations that tend to benefit from corridors and hubs in that area. Travel within Europe or to parts of the Atlantic and the Americas may experience less immediate impact, although they will continue to be subject to changes in fuel and available supply.
This reading results from the combination of operational alerts from the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) and the pressure on energy prices identified by IATA and EIA.
Not everything points to a widespread price explosion
Even with this pressure, demand for flights remains resilient. IATA said in early March that global passenger demand grew 3.8% in January year-on-year and highlighted that events at the end of February introduced uncertainty into the evolution of traffic and fuel costs.
In the same communication, the association also said that, in real terms, average tariffs are still expected to fall throughout 2026, which shows that the market continues to have contradictory forces.
This means that the Portuguese traveler should not assume that any research done today will automatically be more expensive tomorrow. But you should also not ignore that, in times of geopolitical tension, prices can move quickly, especially on sensitive routes and in periods of increased demand.
Strategies to pay less
The best defense remains advance, according to the portal. Booking early helps avoid new fare revisions and gives you more room to compare times, stopovers and alternative airports.
It is also worth reviewing the destination and route. If the objective is just to “make a getaway”, it might be worth swapping a long-distance destination for another European one or choosing a connection with less exposure to areas of operational risk. In many cases, changing the departure city, accepting a different stopover or traveling a day or two earlier can make a big difference in the final price.
Another useful measure is to follow the airline’s notices and check the ticket conditions before paying. In disruptive scenarios, it is interesting to understand whether the rate allows changes, whether it includes partial refunds or whether there is flexibility in case of cancellation.
Final bill may depend on the evolution of the conflict
For now, the most rigorous message is this: there is official basis to say that the current context is putting pressure on fuel and complicating part of the air operation, but there is no solid basis to say that all tickets will increase uniformly. The most likely is a more unstable market, with selective increases, especially on the most exposed routes, and with large differences between companies, dates and stopovers.
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