The Pentagon is apparently preparing for a “final strike” in Iran, which could include the deployment of ground forces and large-scale bombing. While Trump appears to have not yet decided whether to send that many troops, he is apparently prepared to escalate if negotiations with Iran do not produce tangible results soon.
A long-term strategy is missing
While the White House expresses its belief that the presence of troops on the ground will force Tehran to capitulate, military experts see another goal in the move: the Strait of Hormuz. There is speculation about a scenario in which US forces would occupy Khark Island, a key hub for Iranian oil exports, thereby physically breaking the Iranian blockade. However, this is an enormous risk with the threat of direct loss of American soldiers’ lives. So far, it seems that Washington lacks a clear and long-term strategy.
The Strait of Hormuz is the real epicenter of this war even almost a month after the start of the conflict. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have successfully blocked this strategic artery, which normally carries around 20 percent of global oil and gas exports. Iran has implemented a selective blockade – only ships under the flags of India, Pakistan, China or vessels that Tehran deems hostile to the US and Israel are allowed to pass.
The economic effects of the high price of oil are already being felt by ordinary Americans through the increase in the price of fuel and fertilizers.
A 15-point plan full of requirements
In an effort to find a way out, the United States delivered a comprehensive 15-point peace plan to Iran through Pakistani intermediaries. The main negotiator for the Pakistani side is Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir, who has good relations with the White House (Trump called him his “favorite field marshal”) and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.
The American negotiating team consists of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Vice President JD Vance and Trump’s close associates Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
So what does Washington demand? First of all, it is an immediate 30-day ceasefire to create space for negotiations.
In addition, it calls for the complete dismantling of nuclear facilities in Natanz, Isfahan and Ford, a permanent commitment by Iran never to develop nuclear weapons and a ban on domestic uranium enrichment, the handover of existing stockpiles of enriched uranium to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), limiting the range and number of ballistic missiles, ending support for regional proxy groups (Hezbollah, the Houthis) and stopping attacks on energy devices. And last but not least, the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
In exchange, the US offers the lifting of all sanctions, the abolition of the UN mechanism for their immediate renewal and technological support for Iran’s civilian nuclear power plant in Bushehr.
And what about Iran? Officially, he strongly rejects this agreement. Army spokesman Ebrahim Zolfaghari and Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi agree that there are no negotiations with Washington and that the US is “negotiating with itself.” Behind the scenes, however, the situation is more complex. Although Iranian officials have admitted their willingness to negotiate, they categorically reject a 30-day truce out of fear that the US and Israel would only use it to realign forces.
President Masoud Pezeshkyan defined his own maximalist demands from the West’s point of view: recognition of Iran’s legitimate rights, payment of war reparations, international guarantees against future aggression, recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and a regional ceasefire that would also protect Hezbollah. Tehran also demands the withdrawal of American military bases from the entire region.
Divided Washington and falling preferences
In addition, the conflict is becoming a domestic political nightmare for Donald Trump. The latest public opinion polls from the end of March show a steep drop in his popularity.
According to Reuters/Ipsos, 62 percent of Americans disapprove of his performance (only 36 percent approve). As many as 61 percent disapprove of the attacks on Iran themselves, and nearly half (46 percent) think the war will make the U.S. a less safe country in the long run.
According to the Economist/YouGov, 56 percent of respondents disapprove of Trump’s job performance, while 58 percent believe he should have sought approval from Congress before attacking. And the agencies Rasmussen Reports and Civiqs confirm nationwide dissatisfaction ranging from 55 to 57 percent.
Dissensions in the MAGA movement
As November’s midterms loom, the numbers are causing panic among Republicans. In addition, the party is internally split. While some support the war, the isolationist wing of the MAGA movement is beginning to rebel. Republican Congresswoman Nancy Mace from South Carolina declared that she would not support the deployment of ground troops in Iran under any circumstances. In addition, Armed Services Committee Chairman Mike Rogers complains about the Pentagon’s information embargo.
Even Trump’s chaotic communication does not add to the credibility of the White House. Within hours, he can talk about “great progress in the negotiations” and then announce through his spokeswoman that he is ready to “unleash all hell” and raze Iran’s energy infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened.
Internal split in Tehran
Similar chaos reigns on the other side of the barricade. Although after the death of Ali Khamenei, his son Mojtaba Khamenei took his place, he has not appeared in public since his appointment. Communication between Iranian leaders is binding, as there are serious concerns about Israeli assassinations.
In addition, the war deepened the split between the political leadership and the army. While more pragmatic politicians such as President Pezeškján and Speaker of the Parliament Mohammad Bágher Ghálibáf are looking for a way to diplomacy, for the Revolutionary Guards it is an existential struggle. The Guards believe that they have every right to dictate the pace of the war and are determined to prolong the conflict rather than making humiliating concessions.
So until an intersection is found between America’s 15-point plan and Iran’s demand for sovereignty, the war will continue and its cost to the global economy will increase.
Photo of the week:
What else awaits us:
- The Prime Minister of the Slovak Republic, Robert Fico, will pay an official visit to Romania. He will be accompanied by Minister of Defense Robert Kaliňák and Minister of Culture Martina Šimkovičová. They will visit Bucharest and the city of Oradea, where they will meet their compatriots.
- Conclusion of the two-day meeting of the foreign ministers of the G7 group.
- The 61st session of the UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC) will hold an extraordinary debate on the February 28 air attack on a primary school in the Iranian city of Minab, which claimed at least 168 lives.
- Conclusion of the 64th meeting of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
- The Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) event continues.
