The President of Finland, Alexander Stubb, issues an unusual warning for him: the world is approaching a high-risk economic and geopolitical scenario. In an interview with POLITICO, the Nordic leader – considered one of the European leaders with the best personal relationship with Donald Trump – warns that war with Iran could trigger a major global crisis.
A ‘self-inflicted’ global recession
Stubb doesn’t mince words. Based on the analyzes carried out by his team, he believes that the economic impact of the conflict may be even more serious than that of the pandemic. “I think we meet at a situation where this could be a self-inflicted global recession,” points out. As he explains, close experts have warned him that its effects “could be worse than those of COVID-19.”
The key, he insists, is in the interdependence of the global system. “Everything is linked to everything,” he summarizes, before listing a chain that connects energy, food or medicines: “the price of oil with that of gas, with that of food, with that of fertilizers, with that of pharmaceutical products.” That is, a crisis at one point—like the Strait of Hormuz— It can end up directly affecting the pockets of citizens in any country.
For Stubb, this scenario demonstrates the limits of an “America First” foreign policy. “Diplomacy is rarely a transaction,” warns, stressing that the weakening of international norms comes at the worst possible time.
Two wars, one board
The Finnish president also draws an increasingly unstable geopolitical map. While international attention focuses on Iran, the war in Ukraine – which pits kyiv against Vladimir Putin – has taken a backseat. “Right now he’s very worried about Iran,” he says of Trump, suggesting that peace talks are practically frozen.
However, far from being isolated conflicts, Stubb warns of their growing connection. Russia and Iran cooperate militarily, and the use of drones is a clear example: Moscow has used Iranian technology in Ukrainewhile this knowledge can feed back into other war scenarios.
The risk, he admits, is a further escalation. Although he avoids talking openly about a Third World War, he hints at his concern: “We are witnessing an escalation towards regional wars.” And he adds a key idea: when international norms fail, “the conflict is always latent.”
“Iran is not my war”
Despite the seriousness of the context, Stubb distances himself from a possible direct involvement. “This may sound a bit harsh, but Iran is not my war. Ukraine is my war,” he states clearly. A phrase that reflects the strategic priority of northern and eastern European countries.
Even so, he does not rule out future collaboration if the conflict moves towards the security of key routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, vital for global energy trade.
A fissure in the West
Beyond specific wars, Stubb points to a structural change: the weakening of the Western bloc as it was known. “We are probably not witnessing a breakup, but a fissure in the transatlantic alliance,” explains.
In his analysis, Europe—or the “global north”—begins to assume the role of defender of the liberal international order, while the United States adopts a more transactional position. A turn that, in his opinion, further complicates the management of global crises.
All in all, the Finnish president maintains a certain cautious optimism. Faithful to the political culture of his country, he is committed to resilience and cooperation. But its message is clear: in an increasingly connected world, conflicts are no longer local, and their consequences—economic, political and social— They can be much deeper than they appear at first glance.
