According to Paraná Pesquisas, in the 1st round, Lula is numerically ahead: 41.3% X 37.8%; in the 2nd round, Flávio has 45.2% and Lula, 44.1%
Survey released by Paraná Pesquisas this Monday (March 30, 2026) shows that the president (PT) and the senator (PL-RJ) are tied in 1st round and 2nd round scenarios in the dispute for Planalto.
For the 1st round, the PT member obtained 41.3% of voting intentions and Flávio 37.8%. Considering the margin of error (2.2 percentage points), it is a technical tie. Then the governor of Goiás appears, (PSD), with 3.6%.
2ND SHIFT
The research also tested a possible clash between the current head of the Executive and the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL). The data reinforces the consolidation and growth of Flávio as the main name on the right. The senator has 45.2% of voting intentions against 44.1% for Lula.
This is the 2nd time that Flávio appears numerically ahead of the president. In February, Flávio appears with 44.4% and Lula with 43.8%. A technical draw remains. However, in 1 month there was an unfavorable fluctuation for the incumbent in the difference in percentage points between the PT member and Jair Bolsonaro’s son: it went from 0.6 to 1.1.
Paraná Pesquisas interviewed 2,080 voters in 158 municipalities in Brazil on March 25 and 28, 2026. The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points and the confidence interval is 95%. The study is registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under number BR-00873/2026. According to the company, it cost R$50,000 and was paid for with its own resources.
